Aaron Judge made the “all-time best bet” on himself. That’s what Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said before the playoffs, and now he’s tasked with locking Judge into a new contract after the sides failed to come to an agreement before the season began. That bet is about to be cashed in with a deal that could make Judge the highest-paid position player in baseball.
“There’s a pot of gold there,” Cashman said of Judge’s free agency. “It’s yet to be determined what the gold — how much it weighs. But it’s a pot of gold, no doubt about it. So, good for him. It was already a big pot, and obviously, it’ll be bigger.”
Cashman publicly announced in a news conference just hours before Opening Day that the Yankees offered an eight-year, $230.5 million contract extension to Judge. After a season in which Judge hit 62 home runs, had a 207 wRC+ (107 percent better than the league average hitter) and was an 11.4 fWAR player — FanGraphs estimates his WAR was worth $91.4 million — it’s possible the Yankees slugger made around an extra $100 million in free agency by taking that bet on himself.
Judge’s public stance on where he wants to continue his career hasn’t changed. He has said he wants to remain with the Yankees on multiple occasions. The Yankees should hope he feels that way privately, too, because there’s no way to replace his worth on and off the field if he decides to play elsewhere. Judge is the most popular Yankee since Derek Jeter.
If Judge returns, it appears likely the franchise will bestow captaincy upon him, which hasn’t been done since Jeter retired. If Judge leaves, the Yankees could shift their focus to one of the elite shortstops on the market, like Carlos Correa, but replacing a beloved player with one tied to the Astros’ 2017 cheating scandal likely won’t lead to a surge in ticket sales or fan interest for 2023. Signing Correa, or any other high-priced shortstop, would also run counter to the team’s decision-making in the 2022 offseason, when it decided to show long-term trust in its middle-infield prospects: Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. Maybe the Yankees could go all out and trade for Angels mega star Shohei Ohtani if Judge leaves, but he’s a free agent at the end of next season and there’s always a risk it could turn out to be a one-year rental.
The free-agency options if Judge leaves New York are not enticing for the Yankees. That gives Judge leverage over the franchise that must now pay up to make sure it doesn’t lose him. The Yankees have all the resources to make sure that doesn’t happen.
“The money he’s brought to this organization, to this franchise, to the game of baseball, I’m sure just the money alone in September of him chasing 62 was enough to easily pay (him),” Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo said. “There’s plenty of money in this game to be spread around. For him, whatever he gets is going to be astronomical, and he deserves it.”
Re-signing Judge wouldn’t solve all of the Yankees’ problems, but losing him would deliver a significant blow for a team that’s trying to end its World Series drought. Because of what Judge means to the Yankees, it’s difficult to imagine the front office not reaching an agreement on a new deal, but there’s always the possibility he wants to be somewhere else.
If he doesn’t re-sign with the Yankees, here are six possible destinations for Judge, with input from The Athletic’s MLB staff.
San Francisco Giants
From the time that Farhan Zaidi was hired to take over baseball operations prior to the 2019 season, this upcoming winter was supposed to mark a turning point in which the Giants would be major players in free agency. The farm system would be rebuilt. The young and inexpensive talent pipeline would be pumping away. The Giants would be clear of all those bloated contracts (Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford) and able to access a sizable war chest.
Instead, other than Logan Webb and Camilo Doval, the pipeline hasn’t delivered. Crawford’s MVP-adjacent 2021 season earned him a two-year extension, and like so many players on their roster, the fall back to earth in 2022 resulted in an enormous thud. The Giants, despite having the mother of all outlier seasons when they won 107 games and the NL West in 2021, were back to playing roster footsie last season and needed a flourishing final two weeks just to end the year at .500.
They are not close to the stage they hoped to be at as an organization — to leverage their development and financial might on equal footing with the archrival Los Angeles Dodgers. No matter. It will be incumbent upon them to have a big-splash winter anyway, just for a different motivating factor. The Giants are shedding season ticket holders, their full-season attendance was their lowest in 23 years at their waterfront ballpark, and their fans have been vocal about paying premium prices while watching a collaborative, starless roster. For the first time last season, the star-studded line from Will Clark to Barry Bonds to Tim Lincecum to Buster Posey was broken. The Giants need a drawing card, no matter that the rest of their hand is nearer to a pair of fives than a flush.
It’s fair to assume Zaidi (or any baseball executive) would have reservations about signing a 30-year-old Judge to a monster contract. But it’s also fair to assume he knows the score. The Giants need to make a compelling addition this winter, and Judge, given his stature within the game and his roots in the nearby Central Valley, is the obvious pursuit. Prepare for thousands and thousands of words to be spilled over his courtship. But these are the only ones that will matter. What does he want? Where does he want to play? If he truly wants to leave New York for San Francisco, then you can bet the Giants will be ready with a competitive contract offer.