Week 7 was another eventful weekend of games across the NFL, and this week should be no different. To close out the Week 8 slate, we are getting back on the Same Game Parlay train, this time for a battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. With kickoff set for 8:15 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to forecast the action.
Cleveland Browns +3.5 (-115)
Under 45.5 (-110)
Nick Chubb anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, it actually adds more value if you can predict the game script that both teams will want to play. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
Cleveland Browns +3.5 (-115) vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and they should take advantage of a Bengals run defense that ranks 16th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per rush. Cincinnati has also allowed opponents to rush for 5.08 yards per carry since Week 3, a trend that doesn’t bode well against Nick Chubb this week. Chubb has feasted on this Bengals defense in the last three matchups, as he’s rushed for 319 yards on 45 attempts and 4 rushing touchdowns.
The Browns defense has also been able to slow down this Bengals offense under Joe Burrow historically. In fact, Burrow posted his 4th worst game of last season by EPA against the Browns. Even without Chase, Cincinnati should move the football. However, it won’t be easy against Myles Garrett and this Cleveland pass rush. After taking 13 sacks in the first 2 games, Burrow has only been sacked a total of 11 times in the last 5 contests. But the defenses that Cincinnati has faced lately don’t have much in the way of a pass rush. Look for the Bengals offensive line to be tested again, and I’ll ride with the home divisional underdog in this one.
Under 45.5 (-110)
Unders have been hitting at a historic rate in the NFL in 2022. In fact, heading into this week, the under was hitting at a rate of 60% in all games this season. Scoring is down across the league as defenses have reigned supreme this year, making it difficult for the average NFL offense to string together successful possessions. This recent trend becomes even more important in games where a team is favored by more than a field goal, as a wager on the underdog typically correlates with a lower-scoring game this season.
Given that we like the Browns to cover the spread on Monday, this pairs nicely with an under at the current number. Given that 45 is still a key number in NFL totals, I like the fact that we’re still clear of that number after it was announced that Chase would miss this game. In a fierce divisional rivalry game in which both teams like to run the ball and lean conservative on 4th downs, I’ll back the under at the current price.
Nick Chubb anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
With the rumors of a Kareem Hunt trade on the horizon, there is a chance that Hunt is either traded Monday morning before the game, or the Browns deactivate him so he doesn’t get hurt. Even if he does play, Cleveland likely won’t want Hunt to get a ton of snaps. This way, they can still trade him before the deadline on Tuesday. Hunt has been taking plenty of goal line attempts away from Chubb this season so if he doesn’t play, Chubb will likely be the beneficiary of these newfound looks at the goal line. The Browns top running back is one of the most dependable in the league, and I like his chances to find the end zone once again on Monday.
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