Any loss as brutal and baffling as the one the Los Angeles Dodgers just endured is invariably a "heads must roll" situation, and the most vulnerable neck surely belongs to the guy who was in charge throughout it all.
Still, it's worth backing up and asking if the Dodgers' latest earlier-than-expected postseason ouster was really one man's fault. Or, for that matter, if it was really that surprising.
What's on paper doesn't leave much doubt about the latter. The Dodgers made history with their 111 wins and plus-334 run differential in the 2022 regular season, yet they still went down 3-1 in the National League Division Series to a San Diego Padres squad that made no history of any kind in winning 89 games with a plus-45 run differential.
"Shock factor, very high. Disappointment, very high. It's crushing," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters shortly after Josh Hader fired strike three past Freddie Freeman to secure a 5-3 win for the Padres in Game 4 on Saturday.
Blame the Manager If You Want
Because, let's face it, the Dodgers skipper is hardly blameless for the fact that the Dodgers failed to win the World Series after their fourth 100-win season under his leadership.
Among other things, it's in part thanks to Roberts' decision-making that Jake Cronenworth delivered the go-ahead knock with two on and two out in the seventh inning of Game 4:
Cronenworth started that at-bat facing hard-throwing right-hander Yency Almonte, only for Roberts to make the switch to Alex Vesia after Almonte had already thrown ball one. Going for the left-on-left matchup was apparently always the plan, yet the execution isn't the only aspect that looks less than ideal in retrospect.
Cronenworth is typically above average versus left-handed pitching, and specific splits from this year suggest there was little to be gained from having him face a breaking-balling southpaw instead of a flamethrowing righty:
vs. Breaking from LHP: .275 wOBA
vs. 95+ mph Fastballs from RHP: .268 wOBA
To watch Roberts manage according to conventional wisdom this time around might not have been so baffling if he hadn't bucked conventional wisdom earlier in the series.
In choosing to pinch-hit Austin Barnes instead of All-Star Chris Taylor or promising rookie Miguel Vargas with two on and two out in the eighth inning of Game 2, Roberts cited the shape of the former's bat path as his justification. Yet he was ultimately calling on a guy with an 87 OPS+, so the resulting out was hardly a surprise.
While we're at it, let's also pick at the decision to start Tony Gonsolin in Game 3.
Roberts couldn't have made that decision without the blessing of the front office, yet it always looked unnecessarily risky on account of Gonsolin's injury-induced pitch count limitations. Those effectively made it a bullpen game for the Dodgers, whereas they could have put their trust in Tyler Anderson and his 2.57 regular-season ERA.