The New York Yankees (1-1) and the Cleveland Guardians (1-1) meet in Game 3 of an AL Division Series at Progressive Field Saturday. First pitch of the best-of-5 series game is scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze ‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Playoff series: Tied 1-1

The Yankees took an early lead on a Giancarlo Stanton 2-run HR in the bottom of the first inning of Game 2 but that’s all they could muster. RHP Jameson Taillon allowed 2 runs in the top of the 10th inning as the Guardians used 2 bloop singles and a double to the gap to generate 2 big runs.

The Guardians did what they have been doing all season. They have strong pitching good work from the bullpen and timely hitting to steal one in the Bronx. It also helped the Cleveland pitching struck out home run king Aaron Judge 4 times in Game 2.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Triston McKenzie

Severino (7-3 3.18 ERA) had a 1.00 WHIP 2.6 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 102 IP in 19 regular-season starts.

• Was 3-2 with a 3.22 ERA and .171 opponent batting average with 49 K across 50 1/3 IP in 9 road outings
• Hasn’t pitched since Oct. 3 when he allowed just 1 BB with 7 K in 7 hitless IP in a win at Texas

McKenzie (11-11 2.96 ERA) made 30 regular-season starts and 1 relief appearance. He had a 0.95 WHIP 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 191 1/3 IP.

• Went 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA and .196 opponent BA with 96 K and just 7 HR allowed across 81 1/3 IP in 13 home starts
• The Brooklyn native allowed just 1 H 1 BB and 7 K across 7 scoreless IP in a 2-0 win over the Yankees July 3

Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 2 Yankees 1

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (+100) are worth playing as short ‘dogs at home in Game 3.

Severino hasn’t pitched in nearly 2 weeks and there might be a little bit of a rust factor. Still the Cleveland offense isn’t really built for power so he should be able to go deep into the game.

Cleveland hasn’t supported McKenzie with a lot of runs but he has been solid at home regardless and he did blank the Yankees over 7 IP in his only appearance against them this season.

Run line/Against the spread

Guardians +1.5 (-190) is just too expensive for my liking. If you feel good about Cleveland’s prospects of pushing New York to the brink of elimination here take it straight up instead.

AVOID.

Over/Under

UNDER 6.5 (-105) is the best play on the board. We should see plenty of donuts in this one even with Severino not having pitched in game action in nearly 2 weeks. He should do well against the light-hitting Guardians and McKenzie throws smoke. He should hold the New York offense down again.

The Under has cashed in the first 2 games of the series in the Bronx so why change things up now?

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