Sunday marked the beginning of the NFL's in-season trading window. We saw the first moderately significant swap of October when the Falcons quietly shipped linebacker Deion Jones to the Browns for a swap of late-round picks. The move essentially was a salary dump for a player the Falcons have been trying to move all summer and had already paid an $8.5 million bonus in September. With Cleveland linebacker Anthony Walker done for the year (left knee), the team needed another off-ball linebacker to play alongside Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
We only have to go back to last year to see how trades help mold the postseason. In August 2021, the Bengals swapped former first-round pick Billy Price for Giants defensive tackle BJ Hill and landed on an impact contributor, with Hill racking up 5.5 sacks in the regular season and 1.5 more during their run to the Super Bowl. And the Rams sent second- and third-round picks to the Broncos for edge rusher Von Miller, with Denver paying virtually all of his remaining salary. It allowed L.A. coach Sean McVay to add a future Hall of Famer for the minimum, and I'm not sure the Rams would have won Super Bowl LVI without Miller's one-on-one dominance during January and February.
Most deals won't be quite as significant or involve names as notable as the Miller trade, but there's plenty of logical action to go around before the Nov. 1 trade deadline.
Let's run through 15 realistic trades that could make sense for both sides. In many cases, I'm looking at players who are struggling to find time for one team who could be a useful fit on another. In others, I'm arguing it's time for a more significant player to move on to a more competitive team. I've tried to honor each team's salary cap capabilities and flexibility as part of each deal.
We'll start with a pair of deals that would send playmakers to Buffalo:
A new target for the Bills' passing game?
- Bills get: TE Dan Arnold
- Jaguars get: 2023 sixth-round pick
Arnold is a victim of circumstances. The Urban Meyer administration traded former first-round pick CJ Henderson to acquire Arnold last offseason, but with Meyer gone, he has been buried on the tight end depth chart. He has played just 49 offensive snaps this season for the Jags (three catches for 54 yards) and has a little under $1.8 million remaining on the final year of his deal, so Arnold could use a change of scenery in advance of free agency.
A move to the Bills would make sense. Buffalo seemed to want a second veteran tight end behind Dawson Knox when they signed O.J. Howard this offseason, but Howard failed to make the team in camp. Knox and backup Tommy Sweeney have both struggled to stay healthy, leading the Bills to rely on Quintin Morris a week ago. Arnold would offer some veteran security and the flexibility to play more two or three tight end sets when the situation calls for another big body.
A slightly sexier rumor making the rounds this week suggests the Bills could trade for Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. There should be no surprise when the Bills are linked to any Panthers player, given how often Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane returns to add players from his former organization. McCaffrey seems entirely superfluous for a Panthers team going nowhere, while the Bills could use him as a valuable target in their passing attack. On some level, yes, this deal makes sense.
But … I'm not sure I buy it. For one, the Panthers really aren't in a position to alienate their fans any further. Carolina owner David Tepper just fired Matt Rhule after a "home" game where the crowd was mostly 49ers fans. There will be a time where the Panthers move on from McCaffrey and his contract, but if they do add a quarterback in the first round of the draft next year, the veteran would be a reliable safety valve for a developing young passer.
We haven't seen the Bills make significant investments at running back since coach Sean McDermott arrived in town. Buffalo wanted to add a back this offseason and nearly signed J.D. McKissic, but it eventually drafted James Cook with a second-round pick — draft capital that suggests the team's brain trust sees him as a future starter.
It's also difficult to imagine the Bills being able to afford the $12 million that McCaffrey is owed in 2023, meaning they would either need to convince him to take a pay cut or move on from the veteran back after one season in town. I don't see them trading meaningful draft capital to make that sort of move, and having already restructured his deal, the Panthers wouldn't save much money in 2022 by dealing CMC. What about another prominent running back, though?