Thursday Night Football may not be starting your Week 6 NFL DFS contests with a world of excitement, but you need to set yourself up with some lineups tonight. How else are you going to suffer through watching the Washington Commanders taking on the Chicago Bears? The game total of 38 probably tells you all you need to know about what kind of offensive firepower we are looking at, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find ways to make some money. No one is incredibly overpriced, so you’ll be able to get most of the chalk plays in while there are also a few intriguing options to use to set yourself apart from the rest of the field. You don’t have to love Carson Wentz vs Justin Fields, but you can certainly set up a winning DFS lineup tonight with them.
MVP/Captain
Justin Fields, Bears quarterback
While the numbers aren’t too enticing, Justin Fields has shown some improvement over the last two weeks and with a matchup against a soft secondary that ranks 29th against the pass and has allowed 11 touchdowns through the air, we could see another step forward. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 103.7 passer rating against the Commanders and while they have a solid pass-rush that has produced 14 sacks, it plays right into the mobile aspect of Fields’ game. He can take off running or throw it downfield, but the ability to extend plays with his legs should give him value tonight.
Brian Robinson, Commanders running back
Brian Robinson played 29% of the snaps last week in his return after being shot in an attempted robbery and actually led the Washington backfield with 9 carries. He picked up only 22 yards, but it was a very telling start to his 2022 season. Robinson profiled as the early-down back prior to the preseason shooting and that’s exactly where he’ll be tonight against a defense that has allowed 170 rushing yards per game and 8 rushing touchdown this season. With a little bit of early volume, he could really set the tone for this backfield.
It could be somewhat chalky, especially as the home team, but the Bears can generate a decent pass-rush, have 8 sacks on the season and have 8 defensive takeaways. The low game total indicates a defensive battle as much as it indicates ineptitude of offenses, so this could be a solid play for your captain’s seat.
Mid-Tier DFS Plays
Carson Wentz, Commanders quarterback
The way the Bears defense is set up, you would expect Commanders coach Ron Rivera to come out with a heavy run game early on and look for that to open up the play-action and allow Carson Wentz to take some shots downfield. Whether or not that actually happens is yet to be seen and the low game total doesn’t exactly instil a whole lot of confidence for either team. But the Commanders are going to have to throw the ball at some point and Wentz at least has the weapons to help him rack up some decent stats. If you like getting those QBs into your lineup, here he is just waiting for you.
David Montgomery, Bears running back
Monty came back last week and immediately saw a 72% share of the snaps, pushing Khalil Herbert back to the bench. The Commanders have been good against the run this season, thanks to their defensive line strengths, but they are still allowing an average of 110.6 rushing yards per game and have given up 3 rushing touchdowns. Much of the ground work will likely come from Fields tonight, but the Bears are still going to need a strong game from Montgomery to help to take some of the pressure off the quarterback.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders wide receiver
Curtis Samuel has been huge asset for the Commanders offense this season as offensive coordinator Scott Turner continues to use him all over the place. He’ll do jet-sweeps and end-arounds, he’ll run short, quick timing routes to move the chains and he can come over the middle on a slant or crossing route, catch the ball in stride and add yards after the catch. Even if you think the Commanders will go run-heavy, Samuel will still see enough work to be a solid add to your lineups.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders wide receiver
It’s been an incredibly disappointing season for Scary Terry thus far, but he remains an outstanding talent, should Wentz actually be able to get him the ball. It’s a tough matchup with Jaylon Johnson, but McLaurin has the speed to beat coverage downfield and he’s got the hands to come down with the long pass.
Darnell Mooney, Bears wide receiver
Few people are going to even have Darnell Mooney in their lineup tonight, but it makes for a nice contrarian move as the Commanders’ secondary is one of the worst. Mooney has taken 65% of his snaps from the slot, where he will match up with Benjamin St-Juste, one of the corners we’ve been targeting against heavily in DFS. If there was a time to shine for one of the most frustrating receivers in the fantasy kingdom, tonight would be that night.
Commanders D/ST
They don’t generate much in the way of turnovers, but if you think Fields holds the ball too much, the Commanders pass-rush is rock-solid and has generated 11 sacks for over 100 yards lost. The score will stay down, so every point for a sack counts.
JD McKissic, Commanders running back
Should the Commanders fall behind and be forced into a heavier passing attack, JD McKissic will see his snaps go up and he could land half a dozen targets or so. Chicago ranks 13th in the league against running-back pass-plays, so if you believe the Bears fall behind at any point, he’ll be worth a look in full-point PPR contests on DraftKings.
Equanimeous St. Brown, Bears wide receiver
There haven’t been a whole lot of catchable passes to go around through the first 5 games for Chicago, but St. Brown is the No. 2 in this passing attack and he’s got the snaps and targets to prove it. The Commanders rank 30th in DVOA against the opposition’s #2 receiver and are allowing an average of 73.1 yards per game to them. If you believe, as I do, that the Bears are going to have to attack through the air at some point, then St. Brown makes for an interesting add to your lineup.
Antonio Gibson, Commanders running back
Antonio Gibson is now the hybrid back in Washington, bridging the gap between Robinson and McKissic. His carries won’t be as abundant as Robinson’s but he’ll continue to see a handful of targets in the passing game. If he can get some looks in the red zone, he might get a boost in value, but overall, he’s probably best used if you are a multi-lineup player and just want some alternative exposure from Robinson.
Dante Pettis, Bears wide receiver
We’re starting to dig a little deeper here and look for some ways to differentiate ourselves from the herd. Pettis has seen 5 targets over the last 2 games and while we haven’t seen him actually make a catch since Week 1, that’s still the third-most targets among receivers on this team. The Commanders secondary is bad, so if there were ever a time for fringe receivers to make a statement, perhaps this is it. Confidence level is at a 3 right now, but that’s better than a 0, right?
Dyami Brown, Commanders wide receiver
We’ll have to monitor Dyami Brown’s health leading up to game-time tonight, but if he’s healthy and able to play, Brown caught everyone’s attention with his 2 touchdown catches last week. There is definitely speed there and Wentz didn’t seem to have issues getting him the ball, but there are obvious concerns that it was just a matter of soft one-on-one coverage and a little luck.
Cole Kmet, Bears tight end
Is there hope here for the Cole Kmet truthers? The Commanders rank 15th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position this season. Kmet is averaging 3 to 4 targets per game over the last 3 weeks, so there’s an air of hope. We’d like to see more than 1 red-zone target over the first 5 games, but then again, this offense hasn’t really shown itself yet and maybe there is indeed more on the horizon.
John Bates, RB KC, Commanders tight end
With Logan Thomas out for this week, we’ll take a look at John Bates over Cole Turner, the team’s other tight end. It’s not a great play overall, but with the Bears ranking 20th in DVOA against the tight end, it could be worth a shot if you think the Commanders will linger close enough to the end zone for a target or two.
Both kickers are obviously also in play for tonight’s contests and given the low game total and their teams’ offensive struggles, both could be worthy of a spot in your lineup.
Dart Throw DFS Plays
Khalil Herbert, Bears running back
With Montgomery back, Herbert’s touches are reduced to those of just a change-of-pace back, so while he won’t see a world of touches, I could see a scenario where Montgomery breaks a big play and suddenly Herbert is in the game to vulture red zone and goal-line touches. It ain’t pretty but it’s something.
Taylor Heinicke, Commanders quarterback
Strictly a gut feeling but for some reason I feel like this could be the time Wentz gets sacked and hurt or just his ineffectiveness in the first half pushes head coach Ron Rivera into benching him and we get another look at Heinicke. You only do this if you are a multi-entry lineup player, but couldn’t you just see it? Heinicke comes in for the second half and throws for two touchdowns to put the Commanders back into this game? Food for thought!
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