Before we kick off the 2022-23 NBA season, it's time for a quick look back at some of the riskiest moves of what became a spicy summer.

There were a trio of trades that sent All-Stars packing for returns that included three or more first-round picks, despite the fact that the teams sending those picks out were either eliminated in the first round or didn't make the 2022 playoffs at all.

We also saw a player earn the second-biggest contract in NBA history even though he didn't make the 2022 All-Star team. Additionally, a player who most thought would be moved was surprisingly brought back, despite a disastrous debut with his title-hopeful team last year.

For these five riskiest moves of the 2022 offseason, which ones will actually pay off, and which will backfire on the teams that made them?

 

Hawks Give Up Three 1st-Round Picks for Dejounte Murray

The Atlanta Hawks kicked off the first of three blockbuster trades by acquiring Dejounte Murray from the San Antonio Spurs for a 2023 first-round pick (top-16 protected, via Charlotte Hornets), 2025 and 2027 unprotected firsts, the right to swap 2026 firsts and veteran forward Danilo Gallinari.

Three first-round picks is a hefty amount, especially for a player who's made just one All-Star appearance and only has two years remaining on his contract.

Breaking this deal down, however, makes everything look more reasonable for Atlanta, especially since they only had to give up two of their own picks. Trae Young will still be under contract when those picks convey in 2025 and 2027, meaning Atlanta should at least be competitive no matter who else is on the roster.

Gallinari has unfortunately since torn his ACL, and he wasn't even a lock to stay on the Hawks roster had he stayed. Atlanta didn't have to give up any other players in the deal, so swapping a player who's now projected to miss the entire 2022-23 season for an All-Star guard in Murray is a huge upgrade.

Atlanta's offense took a nosedive when Young was on the bench last season (119.3 offensive rating with Young in the game compared to 109.4 when he sat). Murray is an excellent playmaker who can now buoy the team in these minutes.

The contract situation is tricky given that both sides will have to go to unrestricted free agency in 2024 to get Murray the max deal he'll almost certainly receive, but this still gives the Hawks two years to convince him to re-sign.

After winning just a single playoff game, Atlanta needed to make a splash this offseason and not just rely on its own young talent base. Trading Kevin Huerter in a deal for a 2024 protected first-round pick from the Sacramento Kings helped restock some trade ammo, and there's more talent around Young and Murray (John Collins, Clint Capela, De'Andre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu, AJ Griffin) that can be used in future deals.

Pay Off or Backfire?: Pay off. The Hawks got exactly what they needed in Murray as a playmaker and wing defender without having to bleed their assets dry.

 

Wizards Give Bradley Beal $251 Million, No-Trade Clause

If it weren't for Nikola Jokic's new extension with the Denver Nuggets, Bradley Beal's five-year, $251 million contract would be the largest in NBA history.

The problem? While Jokic is a back-to-back MVP, Beal didn't even make the Eastern Conference All-Star team last season after his scoring dropped to its lowest output in four years (23.2 points per game).

Beal is a terrific player, one of the NBA's best shooting guards and does have three All-Star appearances in his 10 seasons, but he's not a franchise player like Jokic, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic or others who have also signed $200-plus million deals. At age 29, we have a good idea of what Beal is—ideally a No. 2 option on a championship team.

Beal hasn't shown the ability to lead a franchise deep into the playoffs. His three-point shooting has tailed off during recent years, and Beal's never been a lock-down defender.

With this new contract, however, the Wizards were forced to pay him like a No. 1 option, as well as include a no-trade clause and 15 percent trade kicker. If Washington eventually decides it wants to trade Beal, he'll have to give his blessing to make any deal happen.

With the Eastern Conference now loaded with improved teams in Atlanta, Cleveland, New York, and Philadelphia, the Wizards would be lucky to simply make the play-in tournament.

Washington is stuck in the middle, which is where no franchise wants to be. This isn't a team talented enough to win a playoff series, nor is it bad enough to land a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson.

The Wizards should have worked to find a sign-and-trade option for Beal instead, routing him to a team with championship hopes while getting some draft picks and young talent back in return.

Washington is set to waste another season of Beal's prime with no true co-star, no elite young talent to build around and now no power to trade Beal without his permission.

Pay Off or Backfire?: Backfire. A sign-and-trade deal would have been best for everyone.