The San Diego Padres and the New York Mets meet in the deciding Game 3 of their NL Wild Card Series Sunday. First pitch from Citi Field is at 7:07 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Best-of-3 series: Tied 1-1
The Mets tied the series with a 7-3 win Saturday. Holding on to a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 7th after SP Jacob deGrom had thrown 6 innings and allowed 2 runs on 5 hits the Mets scored 4 runs to break the game open setting up Sunday’s Game 3.
The Padres homered 4 times against SP Max Scherzer in Game 1 en route to a 7-1 victory. Scherzer allowed all 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings while Padres SP Yu Darvish allowed 1 run on 6 hits and no walks over 7 innings.
Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Chris Bassitt
Musgrove (10-7 2.93 ERA in the regular season) makes his 1st start of the postseason.
- 1.08 WHIP 2.1 BB/9 9.1 K/9 through 181 IP in regular season
- Career postseason: 1-0 8.10 ERA (6 2/3 IP 6 ER) 1.05 WHIP 3 K over 7 relief appearances
Bassitt (15-9 3.42 ERA in the regular season) makes his 1st start of the postseason.
- 1.15 WHIP 2.4 BB/9 8.3 K/9 over 181 2/3 IP in regular season
- Career postseason: 1-0 3.27 ERA (11 IP 4 ER) 1.46 WHIP 9 K in 2 starts
Padres at Mets odds
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)
Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5 Padres 3
Moneyline
Bassitt allowed 2 or fewer runs in 18 of his 30 starts this season including in 4 of his last 6 starts.
Musgrove only allowed 1 run in his final 4 starts spanning 22 innings. He allowed 2 or fewer runs in 21 of his 30 starts.
With pretty even expected performance from the starters let’s look at the bullpen. The Mets had a 3.55 bullpen ERA in the regular season while the Padres had a 3.83 bullpen ERA.
In 2 games this series the Mets bullpen allowed 1 run in 7 1/3 innings. The Padres allowed 5 runs in 6 2/3 innings.
TAKE METS (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
Both games this series were decided by multiple runs.
Seven of the 8 games the two teams played between the regular season and playoffs this year have been decided by more than 1 run.
Ten of the Mets’ last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs.
TAKE METS -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under
Six of the 8 meetings between these sides in 2022 have had 7 or more total runs.
Eleven of the Mets’ last 13 games have had 7 or more runs.
Six of the Padres’ last 7 games have had 7 or more runs.
TAKE OVER 6.5 (-117).