The Arizona Diamondbacks (73-86) and the Milwaukee Brewers (84-75) begin a 3-game set at American Family Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead series 3-1
The Diamondbacks haven’t been a pushover down the stretch giving contenders all they can handle lately. Arizona is a respectable 2-2 across the past 4 games and 5-5 across its last 10 including a split in a 2-game series with the playoff-bound Houston Astros and 2 wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Brewers are currently 2 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the final wild-card spot in the NL with 3 games remaining. Milwaukee has picked a bad time to go ice cold losing 5 of the past 7 overall. It currently has just a 4.8% chance of making the postseason.
Diamondbacks at Brewers projected starters
LHP Tommy Henry vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff
Henry (3-4 5.98 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.57 WHIP 4.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 40 2/3 IP.
- Is 2-2 with a 5.95 ERA and .263 opponent batting average with 10 BB and 11 K across 19 2/3 IP over 4 road starts
- Has posted an 0-1 record 10.00 ERA and .342 opponent BA with 6 HR allowed in just 9 IP across 2 September outings
Woodruff (13-4 3.05 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP 2.5 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 through 147 1/3 IP.
- Has posted a sparkling 8-0 record 1.98 ERA and .187 opponent BA with 100 K and just 13 BB in 72 2/3 IP across 12 home starts
- Was roughed up for 5 ER 8 H and 2 BB in just 5 2/3 IP in a loss at Arizona Sept. 1
Diamondbacks at Brewers odds
- Money line (ML): Diamondbacks +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Brewers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
Diamondbacks at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6 Diamondbacks 2
Money line
The Brewers (-240) still can make the postseason with a little help but they must take care of business tonight. They should be in good shape with arguably their best pitcher going but you can’t risk almost 2 1/2 times your potential return no matter how favorable things look.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The BREWERS -1.5 (-103) is a much better value. Despite that the Diamondbacks touched up Woodruff in the desert just over a month ago he has been untouchable at home. Plus the stakes are ratcheted up even higher and Milwaukee should tee off against a southpaw who has basically been serving up batting practice lately.
The Snakes have been an irritant to some lately but the Brew Crew should ease by them for the comfortable win keeping hope alive for at least one more day.
Over/Under
OVER 7.5 (+105) is worth playing although I’d only go a half-unit on this. Woodruff won’t allow much although the Brewers should plate plenty of runs against the very giving lefty.
Plus the Over is 4-1 in the past 5 games for Arizona and 4-1 in its last 5 on the road too. However you will be going against some strong H2H trends as the Under is 7-1 in the past 8 meetings between these sides and 10-4 in the previous 14 matchups in Milwaukee.
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