Sunday night we get rematch of Super Bowl 55 when the Kansas City Chiefs travel down to Florida to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season in Week 3 and the Buccaneers limp into this game after an ugly victory over the Saints. The O/U is set at a modest 45.5 with the Chiefs either +1 or EV depending on your book. Let’s look at my favorite player props on the night.
Patrick Mahomes Over 281.5 Pass + Rush Yards -115
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
In 2 career games against the Buccanneers, Mahomes has rushed 9 times for 58 yards. The Buc’s run defense is still one of the best in the league. They are top 10 in Opp Rushing Yards per game, Opp Rush Attempts per game, Opp Rushing First Downs per game and Opp Rush Yards per attempt. Kansas City’s backfield is dominated by undersized RBs in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, so it will be difficult for them to succeed between the tackles. We may see some of the rookie Isiah Pacheco Sunday night, but I’m banking on this Chiefs passing attack to keep them in the game.
The Bucs are confident they can get pressure on Mahomes, but he proves to be one of the best QB’s in the league under pressure, ranking top 6 in competition % and behind only Derek Carr in YPA while under pressure. I anticipate Mahomes will be tossing 36-38 passes Sunday night, with a completion % closer to 68. He has hit this in 2/3 games this season, with both coming on the road. I’m on for 1U.
Leonard Fournette Over 59.5 Rushing Yards -125
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is as high as 64.5 on Draftkings, so at 59.5 it feels like a steal. The Chiefs are ranked 18th overall in Tackling according to PFF, so a solid matchup for a bruising back like Fournette. While the Chiefs did a decent job of containing Jonathan Taylor to 71 yards on 3.4 YPC, stopping JT was the focus of the game plan. Tom Brady will be getting back Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Chris Godwin Sunday, so Fournette might be an afterthought. Fournette has seen a big workload to start the season with 21 and 24 carries in the first two weeks, while playing 85% of the snaps on average. The Bucs will look to control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field — like Super Bowl 56, in which Fournette finished with 16 carries and 89 yards. If you can get it at the 59.5, take it for 1.5U.
Anytime TD Scorers
Chris Godwin +170
Isiah Pacheco +800
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