The Boston Red Sox (72-75) and New York Yankees (89-58) meet Thursday at 7:15 p.m. ET to open a 4-game set at Yankee Stadium.
Season series: New York leads 9-6
Boston is just 5-8 in its last 13 games. In their last 4 games against New York the Red Sox are 1-3. In their last 6 against the Yanks the BoSox have scored just 2.83 runs per game.
The Yankees have gone 7-2 in their last 9 games. They enter this series off 3 straight wins and having scored a whopping 35 runs along the way.
Red Sox at Yankees projected starters
RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Jameson Taillon
Wacha (11-1 2.61 ERA) has a 1.03 WHIP 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 114 IP in 20 starts.
- Tossed 7 shutout frames against the Yankees Aug. 14 and owns a 1.38 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. New York (2020-22)
- Has a 1.72 ERA at Fenway and a 3.36 mark elsewhere
- Has benefited from generous rates around the margins including a .249 batting average on balls in play.
Taillon (13-5 4.04 ERA) is tabbed for his 30th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP 1.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 158 IP.
- Has a 3.26 ERA in his last 5 starts against Boston (2021-22)
- Owns a 3.50 Yankee Stadium ERA in the last 2 seasons
Red Sox at Yankees odds
- Money line: Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Yankees -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Red Sox at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4 Yankees 3
Money line
Wacha has been the stronger pitcher of late. And he has not allowed an earned run in his last 4 starts against the Yankees (2021-22).
Taillon is coming off a 94-pitch effort after 99 tosses the game before that. Twice this season he has gone 94-plus in back-to-back starts. His next-time-outs resulted in 9 ER over 12 IP. And that was on 5 days’ rest each time; he gets 4 here. Over his career the veteran righty owns a 3.04 ERA on 4-day rest. Five days have yielded a 4.72 mark.
Combining this action with a Run Line play on Boston makes for decent value.
BACK THE RED SOX (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
Both teams play in more 1-run games than average.
TAKE BOSTON +1.5 (-165).
Over/Under
There is a theoretical Under lean here but with a pair of fly-ball pitchers on the mound and a double-digit breeze blowing out to the short Yankee Stadium porch in right field in the forecast … and a hefty price … the action is nixed.
PASS.
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