Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and predictions

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The Cleveland Guardians (81-67) and Chicago White Sox (76-72) continue a 3-game AL Central series Wednesday. First pitch from Guaranteed Rate Field is at 8:10 p.m. ET.

Season series: Cleveland leads 10-7

Cleveland took Tuesday’s series opener 10-7 in 11 innings. The Guardians are 11-2 in their last 13 games and have logged a .789 OPS over that stretch.

The White Sox have been up and down in the 2nd half but are 13-6 since Aug. 31. Chicago has gone into extra innings in 3 of its last 4 games.

Guardians at White Sox projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Lance Lynn

McKenzie (10-11 3.08 ERA) has appeared in 28 games making 27 starts. He has a 0.97 WHIP 2.3 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 172 1/3 IP.

  • Owns a 2.84 ERA across his last 7 starts
  • That 7-start span includes an Aug. 14 outing against the White Sox in which he struck out 14 batters
  • Current Chicago bats own an aggregate .655 OPS

Lynn (7-5 3.99 ERA) has a 1.07 WHIP 1.4 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 103 2/3 IP in 18 starts.

  • Facing the Guardians for a 2nd straight start and for a 3rd time in the last 5 weeks; has a 5.46 ERA in his last 5 starts against Cleveland (2021-22).
  • Has logged a 1.89 ERA over his last 3 home starts
  • Makes this start on 5 days’ rest which has been a preferred rest interval in recent years (.652 OPS allowed in 2022)

Guardians at White Sox odds

  • Money line: Guardians +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | White Sox -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-180) | White Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Guardians at White Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

White Sox 5 Guardians 4

Money line

The White Sox are a lean here. Both starting pitchers are fly-ballers but McKenzie is more so and the weather forecast calls for a double-digit wind blowing out and helping the batters.

The recent run differential for the White Sox (plus-42 last 19 games) is compelling and Chicago has played Cleveland tough.

The ChiSox are 16-11 in their last 27 home games.

TAKE CHICAGO (-145). Make it a partial-unit play unless it eventually gets priced at -140 or better.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. Both games have played a lot of close games recently.

Over/Under

Both bullpens sport some luck factors of late that would support some regression toward more traffic on the bags and more runs crossing the plate. And both bullpens are the the fatigue zone especially at the back end.

Add in the outward breeze helping fly balls and figure a small-to-moderate lean on the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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