New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

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The New York Yankees (87-57) and Milwaukee Brewers (77-67) meet Saturday night to continue a 3-game interleague series. The battle at American Family Field is scheduled for an 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch.

Season series: Milwaukee leads 1-0. The Brewers took Friday’s game by a score of 7-6.

New York had a 4-game win streak snapped Friday. But a Yankees offense that has often struggled in the season’s 2nd half continued to log productive at-bats. The ballclub owns an .847 OPS over its last 5 games and a .795 mark over its last 10.

The Brewers are 6-2 over their last 8 games. Milwaukee owns a robust 13-5 record over its last 18 games at home.

New York is 7-9 in interleague play this season while Milwaukee is 14-4.

Yankees at Brewers projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff

Taillon (13-4, 3.94 ERA) is tabbed for his 29th start. He has logged a 1.13 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 153 IP.

  • Current Milwaukee batters own a small-sample, aggregate .633 OPS against him
  • Facing a Brewers’ lineup that has been much more dangerous against right-handers (.751 OPS) than against lefties (.665 OPS)
  • Has a history of September surges: over his career has allowed a .660 OPS in September/October regular-season games

Woodruff (10-4, 3.39 ERA) has authored a 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP across 23 starts.

  • Draws a right-leaning Yankee batting order. Woodruff has been tougher against lefty bats the last 3 years.
  • Has clocked a 2.40 ERA, 0.90 WHIP across his last 30 IP at home

Yankees at Brewers odds

  • Money line: Yankees +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -125 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Yankees at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Yankees 3

Money line

Woodruff has been a click better than Taillon this season. Of late, that margin has been perhaps 2 clicks.

Add in a tad more bullpen fatigue on the Yankee side of the aisle, and mix in the Brewers’ proficiency against right-handers.

There is value in MILWAUKEE (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Likable Under. Both clubs play a lot of 1-run games.

Over/Under

Both pitchers excel in keeping their respective clubs in games without suffering a lot of clunkers. Both bullpens have a platoon advantage: New York relievers excel against lefty bats; Milwaukee relievers excel against righties.

Tab the UNDER 7.5 (-122) as being worth a partial-unit play (full-unit action at -120 or better).

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