The Pittsburgh Pirates (51-88) and Cincinnati Reds (56-82) swing into a 4-game NL Central series Monday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Season series: Cincinnati leads 7-5
The Pirates head down the Ohio River after a 2-7 homestand. They are just 6-22 over and have clocked a mere .644 OPS over their last 28 games. Pittsburgh’s .561 OPS for the season ranks 28th in MLB.
The Reds are back at home after a 3-3 road trip. Cincinnati scored 6 runs in a loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday. The Reds have slashed a solid .266/.317/.486 (.803 OPS) over their last 5 games.
Pirates at Reds projected starters
RHP Bryse Wilson vs. LHP Mike Minor
Wilson (2-8, 6.11 ERA) He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP across 20 games (16 starts).
- Has allowed 3 or more runs in 7 of his last 8 appearances
- Albeit in a small sample, has held Reds batters to an aggregate .618 OPS
Minor (4-10, 5.70 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 90 IP.
- Has been shelled in 2 outings versus Pittsburgh this season for 9 runs over 12 innings
- Allowed 1 R over 5 2/3 IP in his last start Wednesday at the Chicago Cubs) and has a history of strong finishes with a career 3.88 ERA in Sept./Oct.
Pirates at Reds odds
- Money line: Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-180) | Reds -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
Pirates at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Pirates 4
Money line
Cincinnati is 17-3 over its last 20 home games against the Bucs.
Pittsburgh has had 11 road trips so far this season: the Pirates are 1-10 in their trip openers.
The home nine has the more rested bullpen, especially at the back end.
TAKE CINCINNATI (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
The likable home side and likable Under don’t usually mix well on the Run Line PASS.
Over/Under
Peg the Cincy offense as being a bit too far out over its skis with its surface numbers. The wiggle room for the pitchers shades the Under, and the weather report in Cincinnati calls for a cooled-off evening.
BACK THE UNDER 9.5 (-130).
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