The Miami Marlins (55-79) and Philadelphia Phillies (74-61) continue a 3-game series Wednesday with a 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 9-5
The Marlins have lost 8 straight games. Miami owns a whiff-heavy .479 OPS over that stretch. The Fish are just 7-22 since Aug. 5.
The Phillies had struggled with their pitching recently, but the home nine engineered a 3-2 victory in the Tuesday opener of this series. Peg the venue as being key: the Phils are 15-5 over their last 20 games at Citizens Bank Park.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
LHP Trevor Rogers vs. LHP Bailey Falter
Rogers (4-10, 5.57 ERA) has made 20 starts this season. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 93 2/3 IP.
- Owns a walk-heavy 8.02 ERA over his last 5 starts against Philadelphia
- Has a 4.79 ERA on the road
Falter (3-3, 4.08 ERA) has appeared in 14 games this season (10 as a starter). He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 57 1/3 IP.
- Has given the Phillies 6 or more IP in each of his last 4 starts; owns a 2.59 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over that stretch
- Exited his last start (Aug. 31) with a right groin injury
- Facing a Marlins lineup that figures to tilt far to the right. The 25-year-old southpaw has allowed an .868 OPS against righty bats (left-handers own a .672 OPS).
Marlins at Phillies odds and lines
- Money line: Marlins +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 3
Money line
Rogers is a 24-year-old who logged a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP a year ago. He’s been undone in part by a .333 batting average on balls in play in 2022. The Miami lefty carries some risk because he’s making his 2nd start off the IL (back). However, he flashed good command and bat-missing with his ground-ball-inducing stuff in his Aug. 31 return.
Going against the grain of a streak isn’t normally enticing, but MIAMI (+135) is worth some partial-unit action as a value play.
Run line/Against the spread
MIAMI +1.5 (-155) is a solid play. The Marlins bullpen is in better shape than that of the Phillies.
The average MLB club has played in 36 1-run games this season, but the Fish have toiled in 52.
Over/Under
Indicators in various cross-sections of this game point both ways. With that kind of equilibrium, a PASS is the best course.
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