The 2022 NFL season is less than a week away, as every team has high hopes of competing for a Super Bowl title. The optimism is what makes the NFL great, especially when a long shot like the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals defied the odds and came out of nowhere to win the conference title.
Every team is hoping to put themselves in a position to be this season's Bengals, but a lot of factors need to go right in order for that to come to fruition. What is a team's realistic ceiling in 2022? How good can each team be with its current roster? Or how badly can things fall apart?
With the NFL season here, let's take a look at the ceiling and floor for all 32 franchises. Think of this as a guide of what to expect for each team this season — or how we think things will play out.
Arizona Cardinals (2021 record: 11-6)
Ceiling: 12-5, playoff victory
The Cardinals are a better football team than many realize, yet bad finishes to the season have defined the Kliff Kingsbury era. After a 7-0 start, Arizona finished 1-4 to close the regular season and was demolished by the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams in the wild card round.
When DeAndre Hopkins does come back, the Cardinals will have Hopkins, Marquise Brown, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore as their top wide receivers — plus Zach Ertz at tight end. That's a passing game set up for Kyler Murray to succeed. Murray has a new contract — and he'll have something to prove.
Winning 12 games may be enough to win the NFC West, but a playoff victory would be a huge step in the right direction for this franchise.
Floor: 7-10, miss playoffs
An aging offensive line comes back to haunt Arizona and James Conner takes a step back from his 18-touchdown campaign last year. The defense will take its lumps without Chandler Jones and Jordan Hicks and Trayvon Mullen doesn't solve the ever-rotating cornerback position.
Of course, there's the annual Kingsbury late-season collapse — which also affects the play of Murray. Another late-season swoon could mean the end of Kingsbury's tenure in Arizona.
Atlanta Falcons (2021 record: 7-10)
Ceiling: 6-11, miss playoffs
The Falcons don't want to win six games in 2022. After trading Matt Ryan and eating $40.525 million in dead cap from his contract, 2022 is a rebuilding year. Desmond Ridder should get his shot to start sooner rather than later, but Arthur Smith declared Marcus Mariota the starting quarterback in the first week of camp.
Mariota is the bridge quarterback for the bigger prize in 2023, unless Ridder builds off his strong preseason and carries this offense to a few wins. Drake London also becomes a game-changer in Year 1. Atlanta will need its offense to play at a high level to win some games.
Floor: 2-15, miss playoffs
If the Falcons win two games, they'll be in prime position for the No. 1 pick in 2023. Their offensive line has solid players in Jake Matthews and Chris Lindstrom, yet is one of the worst units in football. The defensive line is young and will heavily rely on Grady Jarrett to be competent.
Of course, the quarterback situation isn't great. This is a bad football team, building toward the future. Atlanta is doing the right thing in rebuilding the franchise.
Baltimore Ravens (2021 record: 8-9)
Ceiling: 13-4, win AFC Championship
The Ravens do have a talented roster, as they displayed last season in having the AFC's best record heading into December despite over a dozen players on injured reserve. They didn't win a game after that as Lamar Jackson's ankle injury was the final straw in stopping Baltimore from reaching the playoffs for the fourth straight year.
Jackson is playing with house money regarding his contract situation, determined to prove he's worth every penny. The offense is tailor-made for Jackson to succeed running the football, back to the system that aided him in leading the league in touchdown passes and winning MVP honors in 2019. J.K. Dobbins is also back, a major boost for the ground game.
Mike MacDonald has the defense set for a major turnaround and a revamped secondary, with Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey back on the field, should have Baltimore back toward the top of the AFC North in 2022.
The Ravens are contenders in the AFC.
Floor: 9-8, miss playoffs
Even if Jackson suffers an injury, the Ravens should be fine on offense with Tyler Huntley. "Fine" isn't good enough in a loaded conference. The Ravens need Jackson on the field and playing toward MVP level every week, similar toward how he was in the first month of last season.
The wide receiver corps, outside of Rashod Bateman, is a concern and could significantly hurt Baltimore through a 17-game season, even if the Ravens are stacked at tight end. The Ravens also need the All-Pro version of Ronnie Stanley back to keep the offense at a high level and Gus Edwards healthy for the stretch run.
Again, Baltimore is a good team, even with the glaring weaknesses. However, the Ravens really need to get a deal done with Jackson.
Buffalo Bills (2021 record: 11-6)
Ceiling: 14-3, win Super Bowl
The Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL, set up to win the AFC and advance to their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season. Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in football with a loaded wide receiver corps featuring Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and Khalil Shakir. Good luck stopping that group and Dawson Knox at tight end. The Bills are going to score a lot of points.
The defense brought in Von Miller, who proved he's still one of the best edge rushers in the NFL with his incredible postseason run with the Rams. Daquan Jones and Ed Oliver are excellent on the interior, as the defensive line will set up an already talented secondary with Tre'Davious White (currently on PUP), Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde. The linebackers are very underrated as well (remember this was the No. 1 defense last year).
Buffalo's Super Bowl window is now. The Bills are good enough to bang the door down and win it all.
Floor: 11-6, lose in divisional round
There aren't many holes on the Bills that will cost them a playoff spot. Cornerback could be an issue if White doesn't come back until later in the season, but the Bills' biggest hole is at guard. Ryan Bates should be fine at the spot, but how Rodger Saffold handles the grind of a 17-game season will be vital (he is 34 and injured his ribs in a car accident in July).
Devin Singletary will need the blocking up front to continue the strong finish he had last year. The Bills will need Singletary to be more consistent, especially in the close games. Buffalo went 0-6 in one-score games last year, so the Bills will have to learn to win the close ones if they want to be champions.
This team is going to win a lot of games, but a fast start is required. The Bills have to make sure the road through the AFC playoffs goes through Buffalo.
Carolina Panthers (2021 record: 5-12)
Ceiling: 9-8, playoff berth
Acquiring Baker Mayfield was the best move Carolina could make in order to have a chance at the postseason. The Panthers did have the the No. 2-ranked defense in 2021 — and that was without Jaycee Horn the majority of the season. Carolina had horrible quarterback play with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton, which impeded its ability to compete for wins late in the season.
Mayfield doesn't need to be playing at a Pro Bowl level, but has to manage the game and make the crucial throws. A healthy Christian McCaffrey will help as well as Carolina was 4-3 when McCaffrey played last season.
The NFC South isn't a daunting gauntlet as in previous seasons. There's an opportunity for Carolina to steal some wins and go to the playoffs.
Floor: 6-11, miss playoffs
The Panthers could still have McCaffrey miss significant time (he has only played in 10 games over the last two years), really hindering what Carolina wants to do with its offense. That also makes Mayfield's job more difficult in a make-or-break year as a starting quarterback.
Yetur Gross-Matos will have to step up with the departure of Haason Reddick and Ikem Ekwonu has to figure out how to pass protect at the next level. The offensive line needs to be better (on paper the unit is better) than 2021 or Mayfield will be running for his life. A significant injury to Mayfield derails Carolina's playoff chances.