The Baltimore Orioles (68-61) meet the Cleveland Guardians (68-50) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Progressive Field. First pitch is set for 6:10 p.m. ET.
Season series: Guardians lead 3-2.
The Orioles shut out the Guardians 4-0 Wednesday to even this series at 1. RHP Jordan Lyles pitched around 4 hits and 3 walks over 6 2/3 shutout innings. DH Ramon Urias had 3 RBIs, including a 2-run HR late to put it out of reach. Baltimore is 6-4 in its last 10 and 18-12 in the last 30.
Cleveland could only muster 5 hits Wednesday, and 4 of them came from SS Amed Rosario and 3B Jose Ramirez in the 2-3 holes in the lineup. RHP Triston McKenzie deserved a better fate, allowing just 2 ER in 5 IP with 7 K’s. The Guardians cling to a 1.5-game lead over the Minnesota Twins in the division. They need this game with their ace on the hill.
Orioles at Guardians projected starters
RHP Kyle Bradish vs. RHP Shane Bieber
Bradish (2-5, 5.63 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 80 IP.
- Rookie was brilliant in last start against the Houston Astros Friday: 8 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K
- Road warrior: 2-1, 4.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 vs. 0-4, 6.29 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and 8.1 K/9
Bieber (8-7, 3.02 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 152 IP.
- June 3 at Baltimore: 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 11 K
- Last 6 starts: 1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.6 K/9
Orioles at Guardians odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Orioles +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Guardians -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Guardians -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
Orioles at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Orioles 2
Money line
Bieber has been one of the best pitchers no one is talking about over the last month. Two of his 3 starts against the Orioles came in 2019, but Bieber is a ridiculous 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA, 0.54 WHIP and 37 K’s in 27 IP in his career against them. The Guardians ride him to a series win Thursday. I’m not so hot on the -190 ML, but there is a SPECIAL SHANE BIEBER TO RECORD 7 K’S AND A WIN BOOSTED to +260. Strikeouts in his 3 starts against Baltimore: 11, 11 and 15. He has 8+ K’s in 4 of 6 GS so it’s worth a shot.
Run line/Against the spread
Eight of Cleveland’s last 9 victories have been by 2 or more runs. Go lightly, because these teams are pretty evenly matched, but LEAN GUARDIANS -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under
The wind is blowing in at 5 mph, which supports the gut feeling I had to go with the Under in the first place. Cleveland’s last 10 games have had 7 runs or fewer. Seven of 10 of Baltimore’s have been Under 8 as well. Money is flying in on the Under because the price went up twice during publication. Go with the UNDER 7.5 (-122).
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