College football has only a handful of elite teams, but the actual field of contenders to finish in the selection committee's top four this fall runs deep — at least according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, which gives 19 teams more than a 1% chance of making a College Football Playoff semifinal.

Only seven of those teams have at least a 1% chance of winning the national title.

The teams ranked lower can certainly beat the odds — Michigan and Cincinnati are recent proof. Last year, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gave Michigan a lowly .05% chance to reach the playoff, trailing Cincinnati, which had a .3% chance. Georgia entered the season with a 28% chance to reach a semifinal and a 4% chance to win the national title. Alabama, of course, had a 73% chance to reach the CFP last year.

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With that in mind, here's a deeper dive into this year's CFP contenders, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, starting with the teams with the best chance to make the playoff:

 

Ohio State

Last year's record: 11-2

2022 chance to make playoff: 83.1%

2022 chance to win national title: 27.3%

Toughest test: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan. It's not going to be easy, but it's quite possible the Wolverines could be undefeated heading into Columbus for their biggest game of the regular season.

What the committee will like: The star power on what should be the nation's top offense — again. A Heisman-caliber quarterback has been a consistent trait among past CFP contenders, but it doesn't stop at C.J. Stroud. Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba could also play his way into the Heisman conversation, and running back TreVeyon Henderson gives the Buckeyes another powerful option.

What the committee won't like: Home losses to crossover opponents from the Big Ten's West Division. The good news? If Ohio State were to lose to Wisconsin or Iowa, it could have a chance to redeem itself in the Big Ten title game. The bad news? Ohio State shouldn't lose to either of those teams at home if it's a top-four team.

 

Alabama

Last year's record: 13-2

2022 chance to make playoff: 79.7%

2022 chance to win national title: 30.1%

Toughest test: The SEC championship game. The reality is Georgia is the Tide's toughest opponent, but that's assuming these teams win their respective divisions and meet again in the conference championship. Three of Alabama's most difficult regular-season games are on the road — at Texas, Arkansas and LSU.

What the committee will like: Heisman hopefuls on both sides. Alabama might have the best offensive player in Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young and the best defensive player in linebacker Will Anderson Jr.

What the committee won't like: This would be a shocker, but if Alabama were to lose at Texas and not win its division, it would be tough for the committee to justify a top-four finish. A two-loss team has never made the playoff, but it's an entirely different conversation in the meeting room if a two-loss team is also a conference champ.

 

Georgia

Last year's record: 14-1

2022 chance to make playoff: 75.2%

2022 chance to win national title: 24.3%

Toughest test: See: Alabama. There's simply nobody on Georgia's schedule who can challenge it like Bama in the SEC championship game, if that's where the Bulldogs wind up. The most difficult regular-season game will be Nov. 19 at Kentucky, and ESPN's FPI still gives the Bulldogs an 83.3% chance to win.

What the committee will like: Georgia's tight ends. This might be the best tight ends unit in college football, with Brock Bowers, Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington. The key is keeping them healthy.

What the committee won't like: A loss to Oregon. Yes, it can be overcome, and a one-loss SEC champ will finish in the top four. But … Georgia would almost certainly have to win the SEC — which it didn't do last year. Without the Oregon win, Georgia's nonconference résumé includes Samford, Kent State and Georgia Tech. It would need the SEC title to overcome that.