The Cincinnati Reds (48-74) and Philadelphia Phillies (69-55) meet Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET to close out a 4-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 5-1
The Reds have dropped the first 3 games of this series and are just 4-11 in their last 15 games. Five of those 10 losses have come against Philadelphia.
The Phillies have won 4 of their last 5. When not playing the New York Mets, who are 14-5 against them, the Phillies are a robust 17-3 since July 27.
Reds at Phillies projected starters
RHP Justin Dunn vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Dunn (1-1, 6.08 ERA) is making his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 13 1/3 IP.
- Didn’t start his season until Aug. 8 due to a shoulder injury
- The 26-year-old has a 4.19 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 116 career IP
Nola (8-10, 3.25 ERA) is making his 25th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 157 2/3 IP.
- Coming off a clunker that saw him allow 5 runs in as many innings in a Friday home start against the New York Mets
- Has struggled with home run issues at home and owns a 4.54 ERA across 73 1/3 IP at Citizens
Reds at Phillies odds and lines
- Money line: Reds +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Phillies -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +2.5 (-112) | Phillies -2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
Reds at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Reds 3
Money line
Way too much juice here PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Nola’s numbers are for real. Look for a bounce-back after his dodgy effort last time out.
Dunn is an extreme fly-baller tasked keeping the Phillies in check in their hitter-friendly home park on what is forecasted as a breeze-blowing-out evening in Philadelphia. And this is a Phils attack that has batted .294/.360/.525 (.885 OPS) in its last 14 home games.
The Phillies have won only 1 game in this series by 3 runs or more and only 3 of their last 10 wins have been by more than 3 LEAN PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (-108).
This series has some low-score bias in the analytics, but the Under has thus far gone 1-2. Again, when the Phils aren’t playing the Mets their production has been at high levels.
PASS.
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