Clemson received the most No. 4 votes in the preseason AP poll, but plenty of voters threw their support behind Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Utah and Michigan as their fourth College Football Playoff favorite. The vote on how to sort those five contenders ended up being incredibly close, with the difference between Texas A&M, Utah or Michigan taking the No. 6 spot coming down to just a couple of ballots.
That could lend itself to plenty of excitement this season. So The Athletic’s experts made a case for why or why not their respective programs could make this year’s Playoff field.
Clemson
Why the Tigers (preseason No. 4) will make it
It’s difficult to overstate just how talented Clemson’s defense is, considering the Tigers return linebacker Trenton Simpson, defensive tackles Bryan Bresee and Tyler Davis and defensive ends Myles Murphy and Xavier Thomas. But Clemson had a national championship-caliber defense in 2021, and it still wasn’t enough to overcome the woes on offense. If Clemson makes the Playoff, it’ll be for one reason: Quarterback play got better.
DJ Uiagalelei struggled in 2021, throwing nine touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. The offense finished No. 99 nationally and No. 13 of 14 in the ACC. If Clemsonis No. 4, it will be because either Uiagalelei returned to his 2020 form and performed like Clemson knows he can or the Tigers replaced him with five-star freshman Cade Klubnik, who rose to the occasion. Dabo Swinney has shown in the past that he’s not afraid to replace an incumbent with a freshman, and in 2018, the Tigers won a national championship when he started Trevor Lawrence over Kelly Bryant in Week 5.
The Tigers seem to believe in Uiagalelei, who is down about 30 pounds and more mobile than ever. Swinney has fervently defended him this offseason, and Clemson’s belief is that he’s ready for a rebound. Clemson certainly saw what he’s capable of at Notre Dame in 2020, when he threw for 439 yards — the most ever against the Fighting Irish by an opposing quarterback. But in the event he struggles, the Tigers have depth in 2022 that they didn’t have in 2021.
Why they won’t
Also the quarterback play. Clemson’s issues in 2021 weren’t all on Uiagalelei. His wide receivers dropped more passes than usual and the offensive line never had any continuity. Clemson learned the hard way last season that no matter how staunch its defense is or how imposing the run game is on offense behind a trio of talented running backs, it can’t win at the highest level if it can’t move the ball downfield with the passing game. Clemson will miss the Playoff if Uiagalelei again struggles and Klubnik isn’t ready to take over. Defenses know the passing game was vulnerable for Clemson in 2021 and will look to exploit that again in 2022.
Notre Dame
Why the Fighting Irish (preseason No. 5) will make the Playoff
Because Notre Dame can drop opening night at Ohio State, then run the table as it navigates Year 1 under head coach Marcus Freeman and quarterback Tyler Buchner. It’s not hard to see the Irish pushing the Buckeyes in a back-and-forth game, the kind of quality loss that would hold up when married to an 11-game win streak. If you’re going to lose, best to lose early and get better from there. Just ask Ohio State.
As for why the Irish could get on an 11-game win streak to close the year, both lines should rate among the best in college football. Not that the line advantages make the Irish upset-proof, but Notre Dame should be able to beat just about every opposing line (offense or defense) over four quarters, with the exception of Clemson’s defensive line. The linebacker corps may also be better than advertised. If the Irish can get competent play from Buchner, Notre Dame should win nine games. If offensive coordinator Tommy Rees can get Buchner in a good way for Clemson and USC (his ninth and twelfth starts, respectively), then running the table after opening weekend will be realistic.
Why they won’t
When Notre Dame promoted Freeman to head coach, it did so understanding that making Freeman a first-year head coach at a program that devours first-year head coaches would require some patience. As much as Freeman has proven a natural in recruiting, he’s 0-1 as a head coach under adverse circumstances in the Fiesta Bowl. The notion Freeman will learn through an awkward loss this season feels almost certain. And that’s fine for the long haul, even if dropping a game to North Carolina, BYU, Clemson or USC will hurt in the near term. And Notre Dame will almost certainly have to sweep those four games to make the Playoff, perhaps regardless of what happens at Ohio State.