After dropping the first 2 games of the series, the New York Mets (76-42) took down the Atlanta Braves (72-47) Wednesday night. They will conclude the 4-game series Thursday with 1st pitch set for 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park.
Season series: Mets lead 9-6
The Mets are 18-5 in their last 23 games and their 36-23 road record is the 2nd-best in all of baseball.
Wednesday’s loss put an end to Atlanta’s 8-game winning streak in which they had outscored their opponents 53-20.
Mets at Braves projected starters
RHP Jacob deGrom vs. LHP Max Fried
deGrom (2-0, 1.62 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 0.42 WHIP, 0.5 BB/9 and 15.1 K/9 in 16 2/3 IP.
- Beat Atlanta 5-2 on Aug. 7 whiffing 12 batters in 5 2/3 IP (2 R, 1 H, 1 BB)
- Owns a 2.73 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 9 career starts at Truist Park (formerly SunTrust Park)
Fried (10-4, 2.60 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 138 1/3 IP.
- Was placed on the 7-day concussion injured list last week but has been cleared to return and confirmed for Thursday’s start
- In 3 starts against the Mets this season he has a 3.18 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in 17 IP
- In 13 home starts he boasts a 2.49 ERA and 8.6 K/9 with 5 HR allowed in 79 2/3 IP
Mets at Braves odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Braves +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Braves +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Braves 2
Money line
deGrom missed 4 months with a shoulder injury, but looks like his usual dominant self already. He tossed 76 pitches in each of his last 2 starts and got up to 6 innings last time out, and it’s reasonable to expect him to bump the pitch count up a bit in an important game.
Both offenses will have a hard time getting anything going in this one, with 2 outstanding starting pitchers dueling it out. We’ll side with the best pitcher in the game in deGrom and take the METS -125 to prevail.
Run line/Against the spread
This sets up to be a tight pitchers’ duel and there is a strong chance it is eventually decided by just 1 run. But there’s not much value in getting +1.5 runs on either side so it’s best to simply PASS on the run line.
Over/Under
Even with 2 strong offenses squaring off, we aren’t likely to see a lot of runs in this contest. deGrom vs Fried should be a low-scoring affair, with either hurler capable of completely shutting down the opposition. Even with the low total UNDER 6.5 (+110) is the side to take.
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