The New York Mets (75-40) head to Truist Park Monday to start a 4-game series with the Atlanta Braves (70-46) at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Season series: The Mets lead 8-4
New York is 8-2 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 3-1 series victory vs. Atlanta Aug. 5-7. The Mets beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the rubber match of their 3-game set Sunday 6-0.
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in the last 10 and rides a 6-game winning streak after losing 3 consecutive games to N.Y.
Mets at Braves projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Carrasco is 13-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 124 1/3 IP across 22 starts.
- Last start: Won 6-2 Tuesday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 9 K
- 2022 vs. the Braves: 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA (14 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 11 K in 2 starts
Strider is 6-4 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 13.9 K/9 in 89 2/3 IP over 13 starts and 11 relief appearances.
- Last start: Lost 5-2 Sunday at the Mets with 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K
- 2022 vs. the Mets: 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 13 K in 2 starts
Mets at Braves odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 7, Mets 3
Money line
LEAN BRAVES (-160) because they’ve been steamed up by sharp action even though Carrasco has looked a lot better vs. Atlanta this season than Strider against the Mets (+130).
Roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Braves while nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Mets, according to Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the cash when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than the average Joe.
Also, Carrasco’s numbers dip on the road. He’s 5-3 in 9 road starts with a 4.41 ERA (3.35 home ERA) with 7 HR allowed compared to 6 HR allowed in 13 home starts.
I’d only “FLAT-BET” the BRAVES (-160) instead of betting $16 to win $10.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Braves -1.5 (+130) isn’t a big enough payout considering the Mets +1.5 (-160) are red-hot entering this game and N.Y. is 13-8 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-125) because several O/U situational trends for both teams suggest a higher-scoring affair.
Also, Truist Park ranks 12th in park factor per Statcast and there are hitter-friendly weather conditions forecasted Monday including temperatures in the low-90s and nearly a double-digit mph breeze at the batters’ backs.
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