The Atlanta Braves (64-46) head to Beantown Tuesday to start an interleague back-to-back with the Boston Red Sox (54-56). First pitch at Fenway Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Atlanta is 5-5 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, but has lost 5 of the last 6, which includes dropping 4 of 5 games at the New York Mets Thursday-Sunday.
Boston has lost 4 of the last 5 to the Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros and is 4-6 SU in the last 10.
Braves at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. LHP Rich Hill
Morton is 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 116 2/3 IP over 21 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 3-1 loss at home Wednesday to the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 2/3 scoreless IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 8 K
- 2021 vs. the Red Sox: 1 start, a 3-1 win May 25 in Boston with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 9 K
Hill is 4-5 with a 4.52 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 73 2/3 IP across 16 starts.
- Last start: Lost 6-1 Wednesday at the Astros with 3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 1 K
- 2021 vs. Braves: No-decision in a 7-5 win in Tampa July 18 while pitching for the Rays with 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 4 K
Braves at Red Sox odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Red Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+102) | Red Sox +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Braves at Red Sox picks and predictions
Braves 7, Red Sox 4
LEAN BRAVES (-160) only because I’d prefer to lay it with Atlanta’s RL for a plus-money payout.
But, the Braves smash lefties and are profitable as road favorites (20-10 SU) while the Red Sox (+130) are just 6-11 SU as home underdogs.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (+102) since they are 7-3 RL as road favorites vs. left-handed starters and 17-13 RL as road favorites whereas the Red Sox +1.5 (-125) are just 8-9 RL as home underdogs.
Furthermore, Atlanta’s lineup is scoring 5.08 runs per 9 vs. lefties with 5th-ranked wRC+, 2nd-best wOBA and highest hard-hit rate in MLB, according to FanGraphs.
The BRAVES -1.5 (+102) is my favorite look in this game.
LEAN OVER 9.5 (-108) because lefties struggle in Boston, Atlanta’s lineup rakes left-handed pitching and Fenway Park is 6th in park factor, aka a hitter-friendly venue. Also, these teams are a combined 11-7-2 O/U when playing after a rest day.
That said, the Over will probably be a popular pick here and I hate following the herd in sports betting.