The Seattle Mariners (58-51) host the Los Angeles Angels (46-62) Sunday for their 4-game series finale at T-Mobile Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET.
L.A. won 2 of the first 3 games of this series. The first 2 games of this series were 1-run games, but the Angels crushed the Mariners 7-1 Saturday.
Season series: The Angels lead 7-4
Angels at Mariners projected starters
LHP Tucker Davidson vs. LHP Marco Gonzales
Davidson is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 15 H, 13 BB and 10 K in 3 starts and 1 bullpen outing.
- Making his 1st start for the Angels after being acquired from the Atlanta Braves earlier this month.
- Last start: Lost 4-1 May 28 at home vs. the Miami Marlins pitching for the Braves with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 3 K
Gonzales is 6-11 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 in 118 1/3 IP over 21 starts.
- Last start: Lost 7-2 Monday at the New York Yankees with 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 3 HR, 3 BB and 5 K
- 2022 vs. the Angels: 1 start, a 2-1 loss June 26 in L.A. with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 5 K.
Angels at Mariners odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Angels +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mariners -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-165) | Mariners -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Angels at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Angels 1
Money line
LEAN MARINERS (-160) because I’d rather lay it with Seattle’s RL at a plus-money payout.
But, the Mariners are a lot more productive at the plate vs. left-handed pitching and have a much stronger bullpen.
Seattle’s lineup scores more runs per 9 vs. lefties (3.99-3.32) and outranks L.A.’s lineup in wRC+ (110-84), wOBA (.315-.285), ISO (.146-.128) and BB/K rate (0.45-0.36), according to FanGraphs.
Also, Davidson gives up more walks than strikeouts, which is always the type of starting pitcher you want to fade.
Run line/Against the spread
BET a HALF-UNIT on the MARINERS -1.5 (+133) only because they are just 2-7 RL as home favorites with Gonzales on the bump since the beginning of last season. In fact, Seattle is getting outscored in those games 4.22-3.67 on average.
However, as mentioned above, Seattle’s bullpen is a lot more reliable than L.A.’s. Mariners’ relievers have a better WAR, ERA, WHIP and FIP, per FanGraphs. Furthermore, the Angels relievers have logged a lot of pitches over the last 3 days.
Over/Under
BET a HALF-UNIT on the UNDER 7.5 (+105) because both lineup score fewer than 4.00 runs per 9 and the Under appears to be the sharper play.
Roughly 70% of the money is on the Under whereas nearly 90% of the bets are placed on the Over 7.5 (-125), per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors wager a lot more money than the average Joe, it’s wise to follow the cash column when it’s counter to the public.
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