Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (43-62) face the Baltimore Orioles (51-54) Friday in the 1st game of a 3-game set at Camden Yards. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Season series: First meeting since the 2017 season. Baltimore leads the series 12-8 since 2005.

Pittsburgh is coming off an unlikely 3-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers. They lost 7 in a row before that series and were 8-12 in the last 20 games. The Pirates are a young, sneaky team that could cause some contenders trouble down the stretch.

Despite trading a couple of pieces away at the deadline, the O’s are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Texas Rangers. The Orioles outscored the Rangers 21-7 in the series. Baltimore has won 7 of 10 and is 29-20 at home.

Pirates at Orioles projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Dean Kremer

Keller (3-7, 4.37 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 101 IP.

  • Last 4 starts: 1-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
  • Not much of a decline on the road: 4.44 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 vs. 4.30 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 at home

Kremer (3-3, 3.86 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 51 1/3 IP.

  • Last 3 starts: 0-2, 8.56 ERA, 1.83 WHIP
  • Has a 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home vs. 3.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on road

Pirates at Orioles odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Pirates +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Orioles -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-160) | Orioles -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Pirates at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Pirates 4

Money line

Neither starter figures to last too long, which means this will be a battle of bullpen attrition. The Orioles flaunt the 4th-best bullpen ERA at 3.06, and Pittsburgh’s is 4th-worst at 4.44. We’ll take the ORIOLES (-160) for a HALF UNIT as the ML is right at my limit, and these starters are too unpredictable to take on the First 5.

Run line/Against the spread

All 7 of Baltimore’s wins in the last 10 games have been by 2 or more runs. It’s just a lean here because we could be playing with fool’s gold. But LEAN ORIOLES -1.5 (+130).

Over/Under

The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 4 games and 4-0-1 in their last 5 against a right-handed starter. The Over is 4-0 in the Orioles’ last 4 against a righty and 8-0 in the last 8 home games against a sub-.500 team. The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the teams and 4-1 in the last 5 in Baltimore. That’s enough for me to take the OVER 8.5 (-107).

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