The Minnesota Twins (52-46) roll into Petco Park Friday to begin a 3-game interleague series with the San Diego Padres (55-45) at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Minnesota swept a back-to-back games at the Detroit Tigers exiting the All-Star break and lost 2 straight at the Milwaukee Brewers entering this series.
San Diego won 2 of 3 at the New York Mets last weekend and then lost 2 of 3 at the Tigers Monday-Wednesday.
Friday’s Twins-Padres meeting is their 1st since the 2017 season. Minnesota leads the all-time series 15-5.
Twins at Padres projected starters
RHP Joe Ryan vs. LHP Blake Snell
Ryan is 7-3 in 15 starts with a 2.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 81 IP.
- Last start: Won 8-4 Saturday at the Tigers with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 7 K.
- Ryan (+4000) has the best odds among pitchers to win AL Rookie of the Year.
Snell is 2-5 in 11 starts with a 4.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 55 IP.
- Last start: Won 2-1 Saturday at the Mets with 5 scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 July splits: 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 2 HR, 14 BB and 33 K in 4 starts.
Twins at Padres odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Twins +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-210) | Padres -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Twins at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Twins 3
Money line
BET the PADRES (-125).
Snell has found his groove this month after a really slow start to the year, San Diego is 6-2 overall following a rest day while the Twins (+102) are 3-7 after an off-day.
Also, San Diego’s bullpen is 8th in WAR (3.1) and 7th in FIP (3.71) whereas Minnesota’s bullpen is 29th in WAR (-0.1) and 26th in FIP (4.29), according to FanGraphs.
Lastly, I’m seeing some “reverse line movement” headed toward San Diego in the betting market. Roughly 60% of the action is on the Twins according to Pregame.com but the Padres’ ML has been increased from a -115 opener.
BET the PADRES (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Padres -1.5 (+170) is such a juicy payout because San Diego is 12-27 RL as home favorites and the Twins +1.5 (-210) are 13-8 RL as road underdogs.
Also, I need to see a couple more quality starts out of Snell before laying it with the Padres on the RL.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).
These teams are a combined 10-16 O/U when these starters get the nod, San Diego’s lineup has subpar numbers vs. right-handed pitching and Petco Park is last in park factor aka the most pitcher-friendly venue in the majors.
However, these teams also have a combined 11-5-2 O/U following a rest day, the Padres are 6-0-1 O/U vs. AL teams and the Twins are 14-6-1 O/U as road underdogs.
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