The Cleveland Guardians (49-47) and Boston Red Sox (49-49) play the 3rd game of a 4-game series at Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Boston leads 4-1.

Cleveland is 6-3 with an .840 OPS over its last 9 games. The Guardians appear to have righted the ship after going 4-10 from July 2-13.

The Red Sox have been struggling. They are just 7-18 since June 27. Boston pitching coughed up a pair of home runs in an 8-3 loss to Cleveland Tuesday. The Crimson Hose are 1-6 with a 10.77 ERA (and 13 HR allowed) over their last 7 games.

Guardians at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Cal Quantrill vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Quantrill (7-5, 3.75 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He has registered a 1.30 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 105 2/3 IP.

• Owns a 4.53 ERA on the road and a 3.19 mark at home.
• Faced the Red Sox June 24 and allowed 2 runs on 5 hits across 5 IP.

Eovaldi (4-3, 4.30 ERA) has registered a 1.24 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 75 1/3 IP across 14 starts.

• Totes back-to-back clunkers into this turn against Cleveland. Was the lead edge of the Red Sox coughing up 28 runs to the Toronto Blue Jays Friday as he allowed 9 ER in 2 2/3 IP; allowed 3 ER in 4 1/3 IP against the New York Yankees July 15 in his return from the IL.
• Has been tagged for 9 runs twice in his last 7 starts.
• Allowed 9 R (6 ER) to the Houston Astros May 17 and rebounded to clock a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his next 4 starts.

Guardians at Red Sox odds and lines

• Money line: Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Guardians 3

Money line

Both starter’s ERAs could well be flipped if you look at the underlying analytics.

In going 1-6 over 7 games bracketing the All-Star break, the Sox batted just .105 (4-of-38) with runners in scoring position. Boston has its warts, but this price has room for value.

BACK THE RED SOX (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS on getting the Sox by with a multi-run cushion with the game having a likable Under.

Over/Under

The analytics peg both offenses as being too far over their skis. Both bullpens are in good enough shape on the back end.

TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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