The Atlanta Braves (58-39) head to Citizens Bank Park Monday to start a 3-game series with the NL East co-tenant Philadelphia Phillies (49-46) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Atlanta leads 4-3 despite Philly having a plus-7 run differential in those meetings.
The Braves were drilled by the Los Angeles Angels 9-1 Sunday but won the first 2 games of the 3-game set and are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
The Phillies were swept in a 3-game home series vs. the Chicago Cubs this past weekend and are just 3-7 in their last 10 contests.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Fried is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 119 1/3 IP over 19 starts.
- Last start: Win, 6-3, July 16 at the Washington Nationals with 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in Atlanta’s 6-5 home win May 24 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
Suarez is 7-5 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 84 IP across 16 starts.
- Last start: Win, 10-0 July 16 at the Miami Marlins with 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Braves: 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA (11 IP, 9 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 6 BB and 11 K in 2 starts.
Braves at Phillies odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-103) | Phillies +1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 8, Phillies 4
Money line
RISK 1 UNIT on the BRAVES (-180) instead of betting to win 1 unit because Atlanta’s RL is my favorite look in this game and we are getting by far the worst of the number since Atlanta’s ML opened at -151, according to Pregame.com.
Suarez has gotten raked in his 2 starts vs. the Braves this season and Atlanta’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching than Philly’s.
The Braves are 24-10 vs. left-handed starters while the Phillies are 15-13 against lefties. Atlanta’s lineup outranks Philly’s vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (119-109), wOBA (.343-.328), ISO (.193-.174) and hard-hit rate (35.5-30.1%), per FanGraphs.
Run line/Against the spread
BET BRAVES -1.5 (-103).
They are 16-11 RL as road favorites and 7-2 RL as road favorites vs. left-handed starters with a plus-53.2% return on investment and an average final score of 6.33-3.33.
BRAVES -1.5 (-103) is my favorite bet in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-102).
Money has poured in on the Over and the Phillies are 0-6 O/U as home underdogs.
However, Philly is 10-5-1 O/U in Suarez’s 16 starts, Atlanta is 6-3 O/U as a road favorite vs. left-handed starters and Braves-Phillies have a combined 43-28-2 O/U record vs. NL East foes.
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