The Toronto Blue Jays (50-43) and Boston Red Sox (48-45) will open the 2nd half of their seasons and continue their playoff pushes Friday. First pitch from Fenway Park in this AL East matchup is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Season series: Blue Jays lead 7-3, but the Red Sox won their most recent meeting June 30.
The Blue Jays took 3 of 4 games from the Kansas City Royals before the All-Star break and have now won 5 of their last 6 contests. They’re still 13.5 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East and hold a 2-game lead on Boston for 3rd in the division.
The Red Sox limped into the All-Star break with back-to-back losses to the Yankees by a combined score of 27-3. They dropped 6 of their last 7 games to the Tampa Bay Rays and Yankees and have dropped lost 10 of their last 13 outings overall.
Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
Gausman (6-7, 2.87 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 94 IP.
- Despite allowing more than 3 runs just once along a 7-game span the Blue Jays have lost 6 of those starts.
- Gausman is 2-0 and has allowed just 1 earned run in 21 innings with 27 strikeouts in 3 starts against the Red Sox in 2022.
Eovaldi (4-2, 3.34 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 72 2/3 IP.
- The Red Sox came away with a win in each of Eovaldi’s last 5 starts, so he’s been the ace of this staff.
- Pitched 4 1/3 innings at the Yankees and allowing 3 earned runs in a 5-4 win in his return from the IL last Friday.
Blue Jays at Red Sox odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Blue Jays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Red Sox +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+130) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 5
Money line
The Blue Jays (-125) money line actually isn’t as juiced as I expected it to be for a team that’s beaten the Red Sox in 7 of 10 meetings this season. Gausman has owned Boston this year and boasts a strong 2.87 ERA overall.
I like the BLUE JAYS (-125) to win outright on the road.
Run line/Against the spread
You can sprinkle on the run line if you’re feeling really good about Toronto’s chances against the Red Sox. The Red Sox have been surprisingly good against the spread this year and are 50-43 RL — good for 7th-best in the league.
The Blue Jays are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, covering the run line in just 40 of their 93 games — one of the worst ATS records in all of baseball. I would PASS on the run line.
Over/Under
The total has gone Over 50 times in the Blue Jays’ 93 games, tied for the most in baseball. There have been at least 9 runs scored in each of the last 3 meetings between these teams, and even if Toronto doesn’t get to Eovaldi early, the Red Sox’s bullpen isn’t great.
Bet the OVER 8.5 (-130).
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