The Atlanta Braves (52-36) host the New York Mets (54-33) Wednesday for the 2nd game of their 3-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.
Mets SP Max Scherzer outdueled Braves SP Max Fried Monday to help N.Y. win the series opener 4-1. Scherzer went 7 innings and allowed only a solo home run, issuing no walks and striking out 9 batters.
Season series: N.Y. leads 3-2 but Atlanta has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
Mets at Braves projected starters
LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Peterson is 5-1 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 62 IP over 11 starts and 2 bullpen outings.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 8-3 win Wednesday at the Cincinnati Reds with 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Braves: One start — a 5-4 home win May 3 — with 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
Strider is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 14.0 K/9 in 65 2/3 IP over 8 starts and 11 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in Atlanta’s 3-2 home loss Thursday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 6-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 12 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 1 HR and 14.2 K/9 in 4 starts and 6 bullpen outings.
Mets at Braves odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Mets 2
Money line
LEAN BRAVES (-190) only because we are getting the worst of the number since Atlanta’s ML opened at -145 but has been steamed up by sharp action, according to Pregame.com. That said, the Braves have a 3-phase edge over the Mets in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Strider is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year at +200 and has way nastier stuff than Peterson who has a 5.84 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Braves since the start of 2020.
Atlanta’s lineup is also more productive vs. left-handed pitching than N.Y.’s is against righties. The Braves have a higher wRC+ (118-113), wOBA (.342-.322), ISO (.200-.149), BB/K rate (0.40-0.37) and hard-hit rate (34.4-27.9%), per FanGraphs.
However, I would entertain parlaying Atlanta’s ML with another similarly priced team for a better payout and I’m confident enough in the Braves to bet their RL.
Run line/Against the spread
BET 0.75 units on the BRAVES -1.5 (+110) based on the aforementioned logic and 4 of the 5 Mets-Braves meetings this season have been decided by at least 3 runs. Furthermore, Atlanta’s RL has been dragged down by sharp action from a +135 opener, per Pregame.com.
Over/Under
PASS.
Neither starter is a “top-of-the-rotation” guy, both lineups rake Tuesday’s opposing pitcher’s handedness and N.Y. is 10-6-3 O/U as a road underdog.
However, the Under 8.5 (-110) appears to be the sharper play since the Over feels like a trap line.
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