The Baltimore Orioles (35-43) and Minnesota Twins (44-36) continue their 3-game series Saturday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze
Season series: Twins lead 3-2
Minnesota took Friday’s opener 3-2 thanks to CF Byron Buxton’s walk-off, 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th. The two clubs split a 4-game series in Baltimore May 2-5.
Until Baltimore lost 2 of 3 at Seattle Monday through Wednesday, the O’s hadn’t lost a series since June 5, going 3-0-3 in 6 series. The run included a 1-game series win vs. the Chicago Cubs (the 2nd game was postponed by rain).
The Orioles have had trouble on the road where they own a meager .395 win percentage at 17-26. RHP Spenser Watkins, Friday’s starter, gave up 1 run in 6 IP but came away without a decision.
With Friday’s dramatic victory, Minnesota turned the tables after losing back-to-back games at Cleveland on walk-off homers Wednesday and Thursday. The Twins, who are 24-17 at home, have been riding their starting pitchers, who have allowed more than 3 runs just once in the past 10 games.
Orioles at Twins projected starters
RHP Jordan Lyles vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Lyles (4-7, 4.94 ERA) makes his 16th start this season. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 85 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-3 setback at the Chicago White Sox June 26
- Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 4.76 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts, including a no-decision last season (5 IP, 3 ER)
- Tied with Toronto’s Jose Berrios, formerly of the Twins, for the most hits (97) allowed in the American League
Gray (4-1, 2.17 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 49 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 11-1 rout at Cleveland June 27
- Career vs. Orioles: 6-5, 4.53 ERA (57 2/3 ER, 29 ER) in 11 starts – last faced O’s in 2018 when he went 4-1 in 5 outings
- 2.17 is lowest ERA in his 10-year career
- Walked just 1 batter in last 3 starts after brief stint on injured list
Orioles at Twins odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Orioles +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Twins -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-112) | Twins -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Orioles at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Orioles 3
Money line
LEAN TWINS230) – but don’t bet more than 1.5 units. At this -230 price BET 1.495 UNITS to PROFIT 0.65 UNITS.
It’s definitely more expensive than I like, but Gray is Minnesota’s best pitcher in the rotation. Plus, the Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
The Twins also have IF/DH Luis Arraez, who leads the AL in batting average (.343) and on-base percentage (.421). On top of that, the left-hand hitting Arraez is batting .373 with a .453 OBP against right-handed starters.
Run line/Against the spread
Although Minnesota is the better team on paper, Baltimore covers a league-best 62.8% against the run line, going 49-29.
AVOID these lines unless you like the Orioles +1.5 (-112).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5+105)
The O/U line is a bit high. The Orioles hit the Under in 9 of their last 11 games, including cashing Under tickets the last 3 times the line was 8.5.
As for the Twins, the Under is 3-7 in their last 10 games. Plus, Gray has been dominant lately.
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