Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

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The Baltimore Orioles (35-42) and Minnesota Twins (43-36) lift the curtain on a 3-game set at Target Field in Minneapolis. Friday’s opener is slated for an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

The Orioles are 1-3 in their last 4 games. They are continuing a 10-game road trip that included series against the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners. Baltimore is 8 games under-.500 (17-25) on the road overall, but the O’s have found a solid stride of late. With solid pitching at the forefront (2.27 ERA since June 16), they are 8-5 over their last 13 road games.

The Twins are coming off a disappointing 5-game set at Cleveland. Minnesota won 2 of the first 3 games, but then coughed up late leads in Games 4 and 5, which were both eventual walk-off wins for the Guardians.

Orioles at Twins projected starters

RHP Spenser Watkins vs. RHP Joe Ryan

Watkins (1-1, 5.14 ERA) has made 9 starts. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 in 35 IP.

  • Second-year pitcher has a 6.93 ERA in 89 2/3 career IP.
  • Missed a few weeks in late May and early June due to a forearm injury. Returned June 25 and allowed just 1 unearned run in 5 IP vs. the White Sox.

Ryan (6-3, 3.20 ERA) has logged a 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 59 IP in 11 starts.

  • Has run into a few home runs of late and owns a 5.74 ERA in his last 15 2/3 IP.
  • Is a fly-ball pitcher who has benefited from a low 7.8% rate of hits in the air leaving the ballpark.

Orioles at Twins odds and lines

  • Money line: Orioles +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Twins -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Orioles +1.5 (-117) | Twins -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Orioles at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Orioles 4

Money line

Figure the true odds as being sunk in the wide gap between these prices AVOID.

Run line/Against the spread

The Twins have been the victims of some tough losses of late. Look for a bounce-back here.

Minnesota’s .434 OPS against righties ranks 2nd in the league. The home side likely has the better bullpen, although surface stats favor Baltimore.

TAKE MINNESOTA -1.5 (-103).

Over/Under

Fading both starting pitchers and the Baltimore bullpen and noting the bump the Minnesota offense gets a) at home and b) against right-handed pitching, the OVER 9.5 (+100) is the way to go.

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