The Tampa Bay Rays (35-27) visit Yankee Stadium Thursday to conclude a 3-game series with the New York Yankees (46-16) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. has won the 1st 2 games of this series. Yankees CF Aaron Judge hit a 1st-inning solo HR and C Kyle Higashioka knocked a 5th-inning 2-run HR to key New York’s 4-3 win Wednesday after Tuesday’s 7-2 win.

Season series: The Yankees lead 4-2 with a plus-6 run differential in those meetings.

Rays at Yankees projected starters

LHP Jalen Beeks vs. RHP Luis Severino

Beeks is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 26 IP over 1 start and 15 relief appearances.

• Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 8-6 loss at the Baltimore Orioles May 20 with 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB and 1 K.
• 2022 vs. the Yankees: 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA over 2 1/3-scoreless IP with 1 H, 1 BB and 1 K in 1 bullpen outing May 27.

Severino is 4-1 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 61 IP over 11 starts.

• Last start: No-decision in Friday’s 2-1 home win vs. the Chicago Cubs with 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB and 10 K.
• 2022 vs. the Rays: One start, a 4-2 loss in Tampa Sunday with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 8 K.

Rays at Yankees odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Rays +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Yankees -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-105) | Yankees -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Rays at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Rays 1

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to a “flat-bet” on the Yankees (-250). If you do take New York’s ML, risk 1 unit instead of betting to win 1 unit because of the price.

We are getting the worst of the number and the Yankees have been steamed from a -180 ML opening favorite up to the current number, according to Pregame.com.

But, N.Y. has a decisive 3-phase edge over the Rays (+200) in starting and relief pitching and hitting. Severino has some of the nastiest stuff in the MLB, the Yankees bullpen is a top-3 unit in baseball and the Yankees sluggers are raking this year.

Run line/Against the spread

BET a half-unit on the YANKEES -1.5 (-115) only because spending a tax on a RL doesn’t have a good return on investment.

However, N.Y.’s lineup lights up left-handed pitching and Severino’s advanced pitching numbers vs. the Rays +1.5 (-105) are impressive.

Severino has a .186/.254/.325 expected batting average, wOBA, slugging percentage slash line with a 36.0 K% and 86.5 mph exit velocity in 50 plate appearances against Tampa, per Statcast.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105). 

Most of the market is betting the Over 7.5 (-120) according to Pregame.com so we have a contrarian angle. Also, both bullpens are elite, Severino has been dominant and the Under has cashed in Severino’s last 4 starts and Rays-Yankees are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 meetings.

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