The Tampa Bay Rays (35-25) head to Yankee Stadium Tuesday to start a 3-game series with the New York Yankees (44-16) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa is 6-4 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes two 2-1 series losses vs. the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins with a 3-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals sandwiched in between.
New York is 15-5 SU in the last 20 and 9-1 SU in the last 10. The Yankees have a current 4-game winning streak after a 3-game weekend sweep of the Chicago Cubs.
Season series: The AL East rivals are tied 2-2, but the Yankees have a plus-3 run differential in the 4 games.
Rays at Yankees projected starters
RHP Corey Kluber vs. RHP Gerrit Cole
Kluber is 3-2 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 55 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Won 11-3 Wednesday at home vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Yankees: One start, a no-decision in a 3-1 home win May 28 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
Cole is 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 67 IP across 12 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in a 10-7 win June 9 at the Minnesota Twins with 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 5 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. the Rays: One start, a no-decision in the 3-1 loss May 28 in Tampa — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 10 K.
Rays at Yankees odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Rays +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Yankees -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-117) | Yankees -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
Rays at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Rays 2
Money line
LEAN YANKEES (-230) because of the price and I wouldn’t hate parlaying New York’s ML with another similarly priced team for a better payout.
The Yankees have a 3-phase edge over the Rays (+180) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and Cole’s numbers improve at Yankee Stadium while Kluber’s dip on the road.
Also, the Yankees are 6-0 SU with a plus-4.5 margin of victory after a rest day, 26-7 SU as home favorites and 19-10 SU vs. AL East teams. The Rays are just 3-3 SU after a rest day, 3-6 SU as road underdogs and 10-6 SU in division games.
Finally, there’s been significant line movement toward N.Y. as the Yankees opened at -181 ML favorites (per Pregame.com) and have been steamed up to the current number.
If betting N.Y.’s ML outright then RISK or “flat-BET” 1 unit on the YANKEES (-230).
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN YANKEES -1.5 (-103) based on the previous analysis and because they are just 6-0 RL after a rest day.
However, the Rays +1.5 (-117) are 6-3 RL as road underdogs and 3 of the 4 Rays-Yankees meetings this season have been low-scoring affairs so there’s not a lot of value in New York’s RL.
Over/Under
PASS.
New York’s lineup is red-hot the last 2 weeks and the Yankees are 7-5 O/U in Cole’s 12 starts. But, these teams have a combined 16-28-1 O/U in division games and the Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 Rays-Yankees meetings.
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