The Washington Nationals (20-35) and Cincinnati Reds (18-34) close out a 4-game series Sunday. First pitch at Great American Ball Park is slated for a 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Washington leads 2-1.
The Nationals had lost 4 consecutive games before earning an 8-5 win Friday and then a 10-8 triumph Saturday. The combined 18 runs work against the grain of a recent trend: Washington had scored just 23 runs across their previous 10 road games.
Cincy is a solid 15-12 since starting the season with a woeful 3-22 mark. But Reds pitching — a major problem in those first 25 games — has reared its ugly head the last two days. Cincy hurlers coughed up 28 hits, including 7 home runs, across those two games.
Nationals at Reds projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Corbin (1-8, 6.96 ERA) makes his 12th start of the season. He has a 1.79 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 54 1/3 IP.
- Allowed 7 ER Tuesday at the New York Mets in his last start and has coughed up 5 ER or more in 3 of his last 4 outings.
- Owns an 8.17 ERA and 1.97 WHIP across 25 1/3 IP on the road.
Castillo (2-2, 3.38 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 26 2/3 IP.
- Had a shoulder injury delay his start to the season.
- Coming off his best outing since rejoining the Reds when he tossed 6 shutout innings with 10 K at the Boston Red Sox Tuesday.
- Has held current Washington bats to a .610 aggregate OPS albeit in a relatively small dose.
Nationals at Reds odds and lines
- Money line: Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Reds -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Nationals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Nationals 3
Money line
The Reds are the lean in theory, but the juice here is drowning out leverage on both sides. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Cincinnati has the better form of late. Strength of schedule is often overlooked in baseball betting, and the Reds have faced especially tough pitching.
CINCINNATI -1.5 (+105) is worth a partial-unit play.
Over/Under
Corbin has been beaten up around the margins. He’s been undone by unkind batted-ball rates like a .369 batting average on balls in play. ERAs tell the story of a couple of bottom-5 bullpens in this match-up, but underlying stats are a bit more forgiving.
On a dry Cincinnati day with an inward breeze BACK THE UNDER 9.5 (-115).
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