The Tampa Bay Rays (28-19) head to Globe Life Field Monday to start a 4-game series with the Texas Rangers (22-24) with the first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Memorial Day game is the first meeting this season. Texas won last year’s season series 4-3.
The Rays split a 4-game series last weekend with the New York Yankees by winning the final 2 games and are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Texas had its 4-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 6-5 loss at the Oakland Athletics. The Rangers are 5-5 SU in the last 10.
Rays at Rangers projected starters
RHP Drew Rasmussen vs. RHP Glenn Otto
Rasmussen is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 43 2/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Won 5-4 Wednesday at home vs. the Miami Marlins with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 7 K.
Otto is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 29 1/3 IP across 6 starts.
- Last start: Won 7-2 Wednesday at the Los Angeles Angels with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 home splits: 0-1, 10.80 ERA in 2 starts with 10 ER, 12 H, 3 HR, 6 BB and 9 K in 8.1 IP.
Rays at Rangers odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Rays -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Rangers +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+120) | Rangers +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
Rays at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 7, Rangers 5
Money line
BET the RAYS (-145) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Rangers (+120) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and there’s sharp line movement headed toward Tampa in the betting market.
Rasmussen isn’t a name getting mentioned a lot, but he’s pitched well for Tampa this season and the Rays are 8-1 SU in Rasmussen’s 9 starts.
Tampa’s bullpen ranks ahead of Texas’s in ERA, FIP, K/BB rate, hard-hit rate, outside-the-zone swing rate and swinging-strike rate, according to FanGraphs.
Also, Texas’s lineup ranks in the bottom 10 of the MLB vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
Lastly, the Rays appear to be the sharper play since the market has steamed them up from a -124 opening favorite up to the current price (per Pregame.com).
BET the RAYS (-145).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Rays -1.5 (+120) isn’t a big enough payout considering the Rangers +1.5 (-145) are 22-11 as underdogs and 9-5 RL as home underdogs.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (+100).
Tampa is 7-3-2 O/U as road favorites and 3-0-1 O/U in Rasmussen’s last 4 starts as a favorite, while Texas is 8-5-1 O/U as home underdogs and 4-0 O/U in the last 4 home games vs. teams with a winning record.
Also, the conditions favor a higher-scoring affair. Globe Life Field has the 7th-highest park factor, aka very hitter-friendly, and it should be a hot night in Arlington, Texas, (92°) with 15-plus MPH winds blowing out to right-center field.
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup