The Seattle Mariners (19-27) host the American League West co-tenant Houston Astros (27-19) Saturday for the middle game of their 3-game series at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Houston leads 4-3, but Seattle has a plus-4 run differential.

The Mariners won Friday’s opener 6-1. They jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead thanks to a pair of 1st-inning, 2-run homers from CF Julio Rodriguez and DH Kyle Lewis – both against Astros SP Justin Verlander.

Astros at Mariners projected starters

RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Logan Gilbert 

Urquidy is 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

• Last start: 5-2 home win vs. the Texas Rangers Sunday with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 10 K.
• 2022 vs. the Mariners: One start, a 7-2 loss at Seattle April 17 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.

Gilbert is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 52 IP over 9 starts.

• Last start: No-decision in Seattle’s 8-4 loss at the Boston Red Sox Sunday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
• 2021 vs. the Astros: 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA (14 IP, 11 ER), 18 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 14 K across 3 starts.

Astros at Mariners odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+133) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Astros at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Astros 2

Money line

BET MARINERS105).

There’s reverse-line movement heading toward Seattle in the betting market and Urquidy’s pitching peripherals are ugly and his effectiveness declines significantly on the road.

Urquidy’s expected-batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage rates are in the 6th percentile or worse, per Statcast. Urquidy has a 6.55 road ERA (1.47 ERA at home) and 1.64 road WHIP (1.15 WHIP at home). The Astros are 1-3 in Urquidy’s 4 career starts vs. the Mariners.

Also, roughly 90% of the money is on the Astros, per Pregame.com, but Houston’s ML climbed from the -125 opener. This is suspicious because common sense tells us that the oddsmakers would move the lines according to the market movement.

BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Seattle +1.5 (-165) is a little too pricey. However, I wouldn’t hate parlaying Seattle’s RL with another similarly priced line for a better payout. The Mariners are 5-2 RL as home underdogs and the Astros are 8-11 RL as road favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).

T-Mobile Park is a traditionally pitcher-friendly venue and the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings in Seattle. Also, Houston is 9-28 O/U as a favorite.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-108) because both lineups rank in the top 10 of several advanced-hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching and the Astros are 4-0 O/U in Urquidy’s last 4 road starts.

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