The Philadelphia Phillies (21-25) meet the New York Mets (30-17) Saturday at Citi Field for the second game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: N.Y. leads 7-3 and the Mets have a plus-15 run differential.

N.Y. held off a Philly 6-run top of the 6th-inning rally to win the series opener 8-6 Friday. Mets 1B Pete Alonso hit 2-for-2 with a double, 1 home run and 4 RBIs and N.Y.’s pitching staff struck out 12 Phillies batters.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Taijuan Walker 

Eflin is 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 IP over 7 starts.

• Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 home win over the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 12 K.
• 2022 vs. the Mets: Loss, 10-6, May 1 in N.Y. with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K.

Walker is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 30 IP across 6 starts.

• Last start: Win, 2-0, Sunday at the Colorado Rockies with 7-scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
• 2022 vs. the Phillies: 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 4 BB and 7 K over 3 starts.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (+110) because Eflin is having a career year thus far and the line is stuck even though a majority of the action is on the Mets.

Eflin has career bests in several advanced pitching categories and grades in the 82nd percentile or better in expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, hard-hit rate and exit velocity, per Statcast.

The sportsbooks must be taking respected money on the Phillies because more than 75% of the bets placed at the time of writing are on the Mets (according to Pregame.com) but this line hasn’t budged off the opener.

This line is suspiciously low in the first place. N.Y.’s lineup and bullpen rank higher than Philly’s in several advanced statistics and the Phillies are 13-19 overall vs. right-handed starters while the Mets are 24-9 against righties. Yet N.Y.’s ML is set at only -135. Hmmm.

BET the PHILLIES (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS even though the Phillies +1.5 (-190) should cash but it’s a little too expensive. However, I wouldn’t hate parlaying Philly’s RL with another similarly priced line for a better payout because the Phillies are 12-7 RL as underdogs (10-5 RL as road underdogs).

Over/Under

PASS because the O/U trends are all over the place for Phillies-Mets.

Philly is 6-0-1 O/U in the last 7 games as a road underdog and 15-7 O/U in away games. But, N.Y. is 17-20-2 O/U as a favorite and 0-4 O/U in Walker’s last 4 home starts. The Phillies-Mets are also 3-9-1 O/U over their last 12 meetings in N.Y.

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