The Miami Marlins (18-22) head to Tropicana Field Tuesday to start a 2-game interleague series with the Tampa Bay Rays (24-17) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami snapped a 3-game losing skid and prevented a sweep by the Atlanta Braves in a 3-game series with a 4-3 win Sunday. The Marlins are 5-5 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Tampa lost the rubber match of a 3-game set with the Baltimore Orioles 7-6 in extra innings Sunday and is 6-4 SU in its last 10.
The Rays beat the Marlins 5-1 in last year’s season series and Tampa had a plus-11 run differential in those meetings.
Marlins at Rays projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. LHP Shane McClanahan
Lopez is 4-1 with an NL-leading 1.57 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 46 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: No-decision with 3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 2 K in Miami’s 5-4 home loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
- 2021 vs. the Rays: No-decision in Miami’s 6-4 loss in Tampa April 2 with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Rays on the current roster: 1.56 FIP with a .187/.233/.265 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, 30.8 K% and 83.2 mph exit velocity in 26 plate appearances.
McClanahan is 3-2 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 through 46 1/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Win with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K at home vs. the Detroit Tigers last Tuesday.
- 2021 vs. the Marlins: Win, 7-3, at home Sept. 25 with 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
Marlins at Rays odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Rays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Marlins at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Marlins 2
Money line
LEAN RAYS (-150) because their only edge in this matchup is the hitting department and there’s reverse line movement headed towards Miami in the betting market.
A vast majority of the action is on Tampa per pregame.com, yet the Marlins (+125) have been lowered from a +148 opener. This type of suspicious line movement suggests the oddsmakers are daring the public to bet more Rays.
Both starters are in the Cy Young conversations for their respective leagues through the first 5 weeks of the season but Tampa’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching than Miami’s against righties.
The Rays are scoring 4.7 R/9 vs. righties compared to just 3.6 against lefties while the Marlins are scoring 3.5 R/9 vs. lefties and 4.6 against righties. Miami’s lineup ranks 25th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA and dead-last in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
Perhaps we get a better number for Tampa’s ML closer to the first pitch but, for now, I’d RISK only 1 unit on the RAYS (-150) instead of betting 1 unit.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a lean to the Rays -1.5 (+155) because this is a chunky payout but Tampa is just 6-13 RL as a home favorite and Miami is 10-2 RL as a road underdog.
If another Miami starter was on the mound or if Tampa’s pitching staff was a little healthier, I’d contemplate laying it with the Rays -1.5 (+155) at this price point.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (-112) because both starters are dealing right now and Tropicana Field ranks 24th in run factor which means it is a very pitcher-friendly ball park. Tampa is also 8-11 O/U as a home favorite, Miami is 5-7 O/U as a road underdog and Marlins-Rays games were 1-2 O/U in Tampa last season.
However, this is a sharp total and my favorite wager in this game is Tampa’s ML.
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