The Atlanta Braves (19-22) host the Philadelphia Phillies (19-22) Monday for the beginning of a 4-game NL East series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.
Both teams are 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.
Philly snapped a 4-game losing skid and prevented a sweep in a 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-3 extra-inning victory Sunday.
Atlanta dropped the series finale at the Miami Marlins 4-3 Sunday after winning the first 2 games of the set.
The Braves beat the Phillies 10-9 in last year’s season series and Atlanta outscored Philly by 19 runs in those meetings.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Tucker Davidson
Wheeler is 2-3 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Win, 3-0, at home vs. the San Diego Padres Wednesday with 7-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
- 2021 vs. the Braves: 2-2 with a 1.60 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.89 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 across 5 starts.
Davidson is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 5 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: Win, 3-0, Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 5-scoreless IP, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in Atlanta’s 2-1 loss June 9 with 6-scoreless IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
Phillies at Braves odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Braves +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 7, Braves 4
Money line
BET the PHILLIES (-135) since they have a 2-phase edge over the Braves in hitting and the starting pitching matchup and Philly’s ML has been steamed up from a -110 opener by sharp line movement (according to Pregame.com).
Wheeler has found his groove after a slow start to the season and dominated the Braves last year. Since losing his first 3 outings, Wheeler has thrown a quality start in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wheeler has a 3.07 FIP with a 28.1 K% in 192 plate appearances vs. current Phillies batters, per Statcast.
The Phillies are also 7-5 vs. lefty starters with a 115 wRC+ (ranked 8th) and .335 wOBA (ranked 4th) against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.
While the Braves are 11-16 vs. righty starts with a 91 wRC+ (ranked 21st) and a .300 wOBA (ranked 21st) against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Atlanta’s lineup has been ice-cold recently, ranking 24th in wRC+ (90), 20th in wOBA (.298) and 24th in WAR over the last two weeks.
BET the PHILLIES (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Phillies are 1-4 RL as road favorites and the Braves have won their only game as a home underdog. Also, 3 of Philly’s last 4 wins over Atlanta have all been by a single run.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120) because the total has been steamed up even though Atlanta’s lineup has struggled lately and Wheeler has been dominant vs. the Braves and is a legit ace. The Phillies are 8-4 O/U as road underdogs and the Braves are 13-5-2 O/U as home favorites and 8-4-1 O/U vs. NL East foes.
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