Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

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The  #4 seed Dallas Mavericks head to Chase Center Monday for Game 1 of their Western Conference finals series with the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas upset the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns with a humiliating 123-90 Game 7 whooping Sunday in the Western Conference semifinal round.

Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic has taken his game to another level this postseason, averaging the 2nd-most points per game (31.5) and has the 3rd-best PER (30.1) in the playoffs.

Golden State beat the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 to advance to the conference finals.

The Warriors got a vintage Game 6 performance from SG Klay Thompson to close out the series who scored 30 points on 50.0% shooting (8-for-14 from behind the arc).

The Mavs beat the Warriors 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season and the total was 2-2 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Mavericks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Warriors -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-112) | Warriors -5.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

  • None

Warriors

  • SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

Prediction

Mavericks 108, Warriors 103

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+180) because their true price should be closer to +150 in Game 1, Dallas’s spread is a sharp play, Luka is the best player in this series and Doncic balls out vs. the Warriors.

In 9 career head-to-head meetings with Warriors’ former 2-time MVP Steph Curry, Luka and the Mavs are 5-4 SU and Doncic is putting up 31.0 points on 49.2% shooting (44.3% 3-point shooting), 7.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists. Luka outperforms Curry in all these stats in those meetings.

Payton’s absence is also a factor in this series. Payton is Golden State’s best perimeter defender and Dallas’s isolation offense featuring its 3-guard lineup should light up the Warriors’ backcourt.

The Mavs have played the highest frequency of isolation offense thus far in the playoffs and the Warriors have the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency vs. isolation offense and the two worse teams against iso-offense have been eliminated.

Luka’s numbers are a given but, if Mavs guards Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are able to “get theirs”, the Warriors are losing this series.

Dallas has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over Golden State in the ball-security department.

The Mavs were 7th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) during the regular season and 2nd in points off of turnovers allowed per game. While the Warriors had the second-worst in TOV% in the NBA and were 21st in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

We saw Golden State’s ball-security issues surface in their previous series and, if that continues vs. Dallas, then Luka and the Mavs will dictate the pace in these games.

Again, the play is to hit Dallas’s spread harder and too only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+180) if at all.