The San Diego Padres (22-13) head to Citizens Bank Park Tuesday to start a 3-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (17-18) at 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won the rubber match of a 3-game series at the Atlanta Braves Sunday 7-3 in extra innings, and the Padres are 6-4 overall in the last 10 games.
Philly had its 4-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 5-4 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday, and the Phillies are also 6-4 overall in the last 10.
The Phillies beat the Padres 4-2 in last year’s season series, but San Diego outscored Philly 25-24 in those meetings.
Padres at Phillies projected starters
RHP Mike Clevinger vs. RHP Zach Eflin (unofficial starter)
Clevinger is 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA, 10 H, 5 BB and 10 K in 9 IP over 2 starts. Both of Clevinger’s outings went down as no-decisions, but both were 5-4 San Diego victories.
The Phillies haven’t officially announced a starter but are hoping Eflin returns from a stint on the COVID-IL. Eflin is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 24 IP over 5 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 10-6, at the New York Mets with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: Win, 4-2, July 3 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 2 K.
Padres at Phillies odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Padres +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Phillies -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Phillies 4
Money line
LEAN PADRES (+102) because they have the better starter on the mound, and San Diego is 12-10 overall vs. right-handed starters while the Phillies (-125) are 11-14 overall against righties. The Padres are 3-2 overall as road underdogs, and the Phillies are just 8-8 overall as home favorites.
Also, Clevinger is still finding his groove after missing all of last season with an injury, but he still has elite movement on several pitches and three pitches in his arsenal with a negative run value, according to Statcast.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the PADRES (+102) because Philly’s lineup is much hotter than San Diego’s, and Clevinger still needs to get a quality start under his belt before getting my full confidence.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Padres +1.5 (-200) is out of my price range even though they are 5-0 RL as road underdogs, and the Phillies -1.5 (+160) are 7-9 RL as home favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120) because the Padres are 3-2 O/U as road underdogs, 2-0 O/U in Clevinger’s 2 starts and have gone Over the total in five consecutive games.
Whereas the Phillies are 8-6-2 O/U as home favorites and 3-0-1 O/U in their last 4 games vs. teams with a 60.0% or better winning rate.