Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

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The Miami Marlins (13-15) open a 3-game road series Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks (15-14). First pitch is 9:40 p.m. at Chase Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Diamondbacks with MLB picks and predictions.

The Diamondbacks lead the season series 3-0.

The Marlins lost 3 of 4 games in a road series against the San Diego Padres over the weekend, including 3-2 in the Sunday finale. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games after a 7-game win streak.

The Diamondbacks beat the Colorado Rockies 4-0 Sunday to take 2 of 3 games in the home series. They have won 5 of their last 6 games and 9 of their last 12. They swept the Marlins on the road May 2-4.

Marlins at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. RHP Humberto Castellanos

Hernandez (2-1, 6.66 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 24 1/3 IP.

  • His last start was against the Diamondbacks Wednesday. He had a no-decision in the game but allowed 5 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings.
  • He has allowed 4 or more earned runs and pitched fewer than 5 innings in 3 of his starts this season.

Castellanos (2-1, 4.12 ERA) makes his 5th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 through 19 2/3 IP.

  • His last start was against the Marlins Tuesday. He picked up the win going 5 2/3 innings without allowing a run.
  • Picked up the win in his only other home start, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits in 5 innings.

Marlins at Diamondbacks odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Marlins at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 4

Money line

The Marlins are struggling right now. They were swept by Arizona in Miami last week and have only 1 win in their last 8 games. They are 7-8 this season on the road.

The Diamondbacks’ starting pitching has been carrying them. They have won 9 of their last 12 games behind the league’s No. 2 starting pitching ERA at 2.21.

The Marlins have scored 2 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 contests.

Take DIAMONDBACKS (+100).

Run line/Against the spread

The Diamondbacks have MLB’s second-best record against the spread overall this season. They are 18-11 ATS, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers at 19-7 ATS. They are 16-10 ATS as underdogs.

The Marlins are 15-13 ATS but only 4-10 ATS as favorites.

It is close to being too pricy to be worth a bet but take the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-170).

Over/Under

All 3 games had totals of 9 or more runs in their 3-game series in Miami last week.

Both teams have been in low-scoring games recently. The Marlins haven’t had a game with more than 8 runs in their last 4 outings and the Diamondbacks have not surpassed that number in their last 3 contests.

Castellanos has not pitched more than 5 2/3 innings in any out this season and Arizona’s bullpen ERA is 4.71, the 4th highest in the majors.

Take OVER 8.5 (-112).

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