Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

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The Calgary Flames (1-2) and Dallas Stars (2-1) face off Monday in Game 4 of their 1st-round Western Conference playoff series. Puck drop from American Airlines Center is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (TBS).  Below, we look at the Flames vs. Stars odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Flames have scored 3 goals in 3 games. Let that sink in. Calgary was 6th in the NHL with 3.5 goals per game during the regular season, and it even had a 2-1 lead in the second period of Game 3 before falling 4-2.

There have been 45 penalties and 124 penalty minutes combined in the 3 games. Calgary has gone 1-for-12 on the power play, which means it has 2 even-strength goals in the series. That won’t get it done.

Dallas was 0-for-10 on the power play in the series well into Game 3 before C Joe Pavelski ended the drought with his 2nd goal of the game and 1st on the power play in the 3rd period. No pun intended, but a star may have been born in this series as second-year G Jake Oettinger has been nothing short of awesome with a .969 SV%. Is that sustainable?

Flames at Stars odds and lines

  • Money line: Flames -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Stars +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Flames -1.5 (+165) | Stars +1.5 (-220)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Flames at Stars projected goalies

Jacob Markstrom (37-15-9, 2.22 GAA, .922 SV%, 9 SO – regular season) vs. Jake Oettinger (30-15-1, 2.53 GAA, .914 SV%, 1 SO – regular season)

Markstrom was beaten for 3 goals on 31 shots in Game 3, but he still has a filthy 1.36 GAA and .942 SV% in the series. Those numbers aren’t indicative of a goalie that’s 1-2. He was 1-0-1 with a 3.33 GAA and .878 SV% against Dallas in the regular season.

The 23-year-old Oettinger has come of age in his 2nd season. He has a 1.01 GAA and .969 SV% in the series. Those probably aren’t sustainable as Calgary will score more than 1 goal per game the rest of the series. He was 0-2 with a 3.56 GAA and .908 SV% against Calgary during the regular season.

Money line

Calgary’s offense has been abysmal, but they should have twice the amount of 5-on-5 goals than they do, according to MoneyPuck.com’s expected goals for metrics. Only Dallas’ percentage is worse among the playoff squads. Get your memes of the WWE’s Undertaker rising up out of his casket ready because I think the Flames ignite in Game 4.

Flames LW Matthew Tkachuk has more than twice the penalty minutes (12) than shots on goal (5). I have a hunch he lights the lamp tonight. It’s a little steep considering their struggles, but take the FLAMES (-160) to even it up.

Against the spread

I’m not a fan of either puck line because of the offensive futility. I do see a Flames multiple-goal win, but maybe if the odds were closer to +200 for the risk PASS.

Over/Under

After the Under dominated in the first two games, the Over squeaked by in Game 3. There are a lot of trends pointing to the Under, but I think the power outage has dropped the O/U too low to go that way. It’ll be close again in Game 4, but I think an empty-netter gets it over the hump late LEAN OVER 5.5 (+105).