The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Sunday in Game 4 of their 1st-round Eastern Conference playoff series. The Maple Leafs lead the series 2-1. Puck drop at Amalie Arena in Tampa is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.
The Leafs surprised the Lightning in Game 3 as the series shifted to Florida. Toronto suffered a disappointing 5-3 loss on home ice to cede home-ice advantage to the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champs, only to seize it back with a 5-2 win Friday in Tampa.
The Lightning turn to Andrei Vasilevskiy, who since 2020 is a crazy 15-0-0 with a 1.31 GAA, .948 SV% and 5 shutouts following a playoff loss. He is also 4th all-time in postseason history with a .923 SV%, so he’ll look to snap Tampa back on track yet again.
Maple Leafs at Lightning odds and lines
- Money line: Maple Leafs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Lightning -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-270) | Lightning -1.5 (+190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies
Jack Campbell (31-9-6, 2.64 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 SO – regular season) vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO – regular season)
Campbell rebounded from a shaky performance in Game 2 to stop 32 of the 34 shots he faced in Game 3 to help the Maple Leafs grab the series lead. He is 2-1-0 with a 2.37 GA and .924 SV% with a shutout in the 3 games.
Vasilevskiy’s success after a playoff loss is well documented. Overall in this series, he has been outplayed. He is 1-2-0 with a 3.72 GAA and subpar .890 SV% in the 3 games. Vasilevskiy needs to be better or the postseason run ends early this year.
The LIGHTNING (-120) are slight favorites on home ice. Bet on their pedigree, bet against the Maple Leafs (+100) who have been perennial chokers and bet on Vasilevskiy who is the best in the business following a postseason setback.
The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-270) will cost you more than 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive for insurance. If you like them, just play it straight up. I don’t, however, and think Tampa squares the series in a close one.
OVER 6.5 (-120) is the best play on the board. We’ve had a total of 20 goals, or 6.7 goals per game, through the first 3 games in this series. We’ll see more offense in Game 4, as the only thing keeping that average from being higher was Tampa’s stunning shutout loss in Game 1. We’ll get fire-wagon hockey, and bettors won’t need a late empty-net goal to push the total Over like we saw in Game 3. This will be a lot more comfortable.