The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-0) head to the American Airlines Center for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals series against the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Phoenix rallied from a first-half deficit to crush Dallas 129-109 in Game 2 even though the Mavs won 3 of the “4 factors” because the Suns shot an insane 73.0% effective field goal rate (eFG%), which breaks down to 64.5% from the field and 52.0% from 3-point land.
Suns All-Star guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker are scorching the Mavs. They are scoring a combined 50 points per game (PPG) on 62.1% shooting (45.0% from behind the arc) with 24 rebounds and 23 assists in the series.
Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic has pulled his weight in this series, averaging 40.0 PPG on 66.3% true shooting (.538/.429/.789) with 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. But Mavs’ first-round breakout star, PG Jalen Brunson, is adding just 11.0 PPG on 32.1% shooting (25.0% from 3) with a minus-50 net rating.
The Suns are 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Mavs since acquiring CP3 and the total is 4-4 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA conference semifinals Game 3 betting previews
Mavericks at Suns odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Suns -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mavericks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Suns -1.5 (-102) | Mavericks +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Mavericks at Suns key injuries
Suns
- None
Mavericks
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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Suns 116, Mavericks 110
Money line
BET the SUNS (-115) because their backcourt is lighting up the Mavericks’ (-105) backcourt and because they are hurting Luka on defense in the second halves of these games.
Phoenix being able to exploit Luka puts Dallas in a tough spot because it needs Doncic on the floor for his offensive brilliance but has nowhere to hide him on defense.
On top of that, the Suns’ frontcourt is far superior to the Mavs’, which is the main reason Phoenix has nearly a 10% higher rebounding rate than Dallas in this series.
We saw the New Orleans Pelicans make up for an outmatched offense vs. Phoenix in the first round by crashing the offensive glass. But the Mavs were just 24th in offensive rebounding rate during the regular season.
Obviously, Dallas’s 3-point shooters can get hot Friday, or Luka and the Mavs can get some home-cooking from the referees in Game 3.
But the Suns (-115) have an implied win probability of 53.5% and Phoenix has beaten Dallas in 100% of their meetings since the Suns picked up CP3.
BET 1 UNIT on the SUNS (-115).