The Tampa Bay Rays (9-8) host the Seattle Mariners (11-6) Wednesday for the second of their 3-game series in Tropicana Field at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle beat Tampa 8-4 Tuesday in the series opener, which featured a 5 2/3 IP-scoreless gem by Logan Gilbert with 7 K and just 2 H.

The Mariners won last year’s regular-season series against the Rays 6-1 and Seattle outscored Tampa by 17 runs in those meetings.

Mariners at Rays projected starters

LHP Marco Gonzales vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen 

Gonzales (1-1, 3.29 ERA) earned a no-decision in Seattle’s 8-6 loss Thursday to the Texas Rangers. He went 4 2/3 IP, surrendering 2 ER on 6 H and 1 BB with 6 K.

• 2021 vs. the Rays: No-decision in Seattle’s 6-2 win over Tampa last June, throwing 6 1/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 5 H and 3 BB with 6 K.
• vs. Rays on the current roster: 1.59 FIP with .255 expected batting average, .355 expected wOBA, .501 expected slugging percentage, 27.6 K% and 85.4 mph exit velocity in 29 plate appearances.

Rasmussen (0-1, 5.25 ERA) had a no-decision in Tampa’s 8-2 win last Wednesday at the Chicago Cubs. In 3 IP, he allowed 2 ER on 4 H and 2 BB with 4 K.

Mariners at Rays odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Rays -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Rays -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Mariners at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 4, Mariners 2

Money line

LEAN RAYS (-145) because this is a little pricey given how well the Mariners (+120) have played against Tampa since the start of last season, Rasmussen’s pitching peripherals, and the Tampa pitching staff’s health. The Rays are missing several talented arms in both their rotation and bullpen.

However, Tampa’s lineup rakes against left-handed pitching and the Rays are 3-1 overall versus lefty starters. Tampa’s lineup ranks third in wRC+ against lefties (141) and fourth in both wOBA (.359) and BB/K (0.48), according to FanGraphs.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I don’t see a big enough discrepancy between these teams in this spot to take either RL.

Since I’m on Tampa’s ML, the Rays -1.5 (+140) is the side I lean toward, but I don’t have enough conviction to put up any money.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-120) because I don’t have a lot of confidence in either starter, but both pitching staffs are elite. Gonzales’ ERA and WHIP are better in Tampa than his career marks and Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Furthermore, the Over 7.5 (-105) is getting hammered by the market (according to Pregame.com) but the Under is pricier, which suggests the House wants to induce more pro-Over money. Obviously, we don’t want to play into the House’s hand.