The No. 5 seed Utah Jazz (2-2) returns to the Big D Monday after evening their Western Conference first-round series with the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-2). Tip-off at American Airlines Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET and airs on TNT. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Utah tied the series in Game 4 by beating Dallas 100-99 thanks to a Jazz SG Donovan Mitchell-to-C Rudy Gobert alley-oop dunk with seconds remaining to key the victory.
Game 4 was Mavericks All-Star PG Luka Doncic‘s first game in this series after returning from a calf injury. He scored 30 points on 52.4% shooting (4-for-10 from behind the arc) with 10 rebounds.
Jazz at Mavericks odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Jazz +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mavericks -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Jazz +3.5 (-110) | Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Jazz at Mavericks key injuries
Jazz at Mavericks picks and predictions
Mavericks 111, Jazz 103
LEAN MAVERICKS (-160) because I’m confident enough in them to lay the points but wouldn’t hate a Dallas ML wager.
The Mavs are 4-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last five home games versus the Jazz dating back to last season including these playoffs. Utah’s lone victory in Dallas over that span was Game 1 of this series when the Mavs were playing without Luka.
The main reason the Jazz won Game 4 was their plus-19 free-throw attempt differential, which will most likely regress now that the series is back in Dallas.
Both teams are top 10 in net efficiency and top 10 in defensive efficiency. However, Dallas has a winning record and plus-ATS margin versus top-10 teams and defenses while Utah has a losing record and minus-ATS margin in those spots, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
It’s only a LEAN to the MAVERICKS (-160) because I’d rather bet their cheaper spread but Dallas will put Utah’s back against the wall with Game 5 victory.