Tigers legend Miguel Cabrera has joined the illustrious 3,000-hit club. He did so in his first at-bat Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park against the Colorado Rockies. Cabrera is the 33rd player in MLB history to reach the hallowed mark.
This is the first time we've seen a player get there since Albert Pujols did in 2018 and that actually was the fourth straight season a player got there, after A-Rod in 2015, Ichiro Suzuki in 2016 and Adrián Beltré in 2017. We will not, however, be starting another streak like that. In fact, trying to peg who might get to 3,000 hits next is a chore.
Robinson Canó is next on the active list with 2,630 hits. He's 39 years old and signed through next season. The best bet is he will fall short. After that, there's Yadier Molina at 39 years old and 2,116 hits, Joey Votto at 38 and 2,035 and those are the only players even over 2,000 hits.
So, here are 10 candidates.
1. Jose Altuve
He was once on a much more scorching pace. From 2014-17, Altuve averaged 211 hits per season, leading the league each of the four years. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season hurt, obviously, but Altuve had just 169 hits in 2018, 149 in 2019 and 167 last year. He's currently at 1,783 in his age-32 season, and he's currently on the injured list. He certainly has a chance, but it no longer looks like a decent chance. Twelve-hundred-plus hits the rest of his career is a tall order.
2. Freddie Freeman
Freeman is also 32 and in the 1,700s, sitting at 1,722. He hasn't fallen off like Altuve has, but his career high for hits in a season is 191 (2018). If he has six full seasons of 191 hits left after this year, that gets him to 2,868 plus however many hits he has left in 2022. Is that a realistic bet? Let's say he continues to average 176 hits per 162 games the rest of his career. At that rate, he'd get to 3,000 hits after roughly 7 1/4 more seasons. Again, he's 32. It would be very tough, but I do think he gets close.
3. Manny Machado
He doesn't turn 30 until July and he's approaching the halfway point, as he has 1,445 career hits. He's topped out at 189 hits in a season and that was all the way back when he was 20, but he has topped 180 three times since. Of course, he only had 150 hits in 2019 and 157 last year. He'll need to get back up into the 180s on a seasonal basis to have a good shot.