The No. 5 seed Utah Jazz (1-2) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-1) Saturday for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off at Vivint Arena is set for 4:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas took control of the series by winning Game 3 Thursday 126-118 behind a hot-shooting night from behind the arc and another sensational performance by breakout star PG Jalen Brunson.
The Mavericks have connected on 22 more 3-pointers and are outshooting the Jazz 40.5-34.2% in this series. Brunson is averaging 32.0 points on 60.2% true shooting (.507/.412/.850) with 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists.
The major story heading into Game 4 is the possible return of Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic who was sidelined for the first three games of the series with a calf injury he sustained in Dallas’s regular-season finale.
Mavericks at Jazz odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Jazz -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-120) | Jazz -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Jazz key injuries
Mavericks
- PG Luka Doncic (calf) questionable
Jazz
- None
Mavericks at Jazz picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 110, Jazz 105
Money line
SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+205) because this is a terrible matchup for the Jazz and I don’t see any moves for Utah head coach Quin Snyder to make. The Jazz need big Rudy Gobert on the floor to protect the paint and set screens and SG Donovan Mitchell is the center of Utah’s offense.
But, Mitchell and the rest of the Jazz’s backcourt cannot stop Dallas’s dribble penetration, which collapses Utah’s defense and leads to wide-open 3-pointers. The Mavs aren’t just red-hot from three but are getting great looks.
Both teams ranked in the top-10 of defensive rating during the regular season but Dallas played much better than Utah versus tough defenses.
The Mavs are 16-11 straight up (SU) against top-10 defenses with a plus-2.5 ATS margin (ranked fourth). Whereas the Jazz are 10-16 SU with a minus-3.6 ATS margin (ranked 23rd), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Luka’s return also is the last thing Utah wants to see. Luka averaged 30.0 points on 58.6% true shooting (.456/.444/.800) with 11.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists and a plus-9 net rating in three games versus the Jazz this season.
I’d only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+205), if at all, because Dallas’s spread is the sharper bet. The Jazz have also been one of the better home teams in recent seasons and we’ll see an all-in effort from Utah Saturday.